Saturday, April 27, 2013

Jason Akeson: 2013-14 Rookie of the Year?

We got our first look at what 22 year old Jason Akeson could do in the NHL tonight. And boy did we get an eyeful. Akeson played a great game outside of scoring his first goal of the season. He could create his own space, drive the net, force turnovers (like he did on his goal), and move the puck rather well.

While Akeson did make a few miscues, missing Voracek on a pass in the first and having a pass blocked on the rush in the third, he was overall very impressive. The mistakes that he made could easily be worked out after a few more games in the NHL. The biggest concerns the Flyers had with Akeson, his speed and defensive play, didn't look to be big problems (though his defensive ability wasn't really tested). He looked like he belonged in the NHL. He looked like he belonged with the Flyers top line. And he was able to create offense against one of the top defensive teams in the league.

Akeson has been a late bloomer compared to most hockey players. In 2007-08, his draft eligible year, he spent most of the season in the Central Canada Hockey League. A Junior "A" league (most players are drafted out of a Major Junior league) that is a lesser league even when compared to other Junior A leagues like OJHL or the BCHL. Akeson made the leap to Major Junior as an overage player and immediately started making an impact. He scored more than a point per game his first year with the Kitchner Rangers and by the 2010-11 season he was leading the league in points.

Akeson has been playing with the Phantoms since signing with the organization in the 2011 offseason; and he's been their best player over the last two seasons. Playing with a below average team Akeson has still been able to put up decent points. After being considered a passer and playmaker Akeson had a goal scoring break out this past season with 20 goals in 62 games. And those numbers aren't overly inflated from playing guys like Schenn and Couturier during the lockout because Akeson spent the first month and half of the season in the ECHL.

Akeson has showed he can play in NHL but he has to be given the right opportunity. Unlike players like Sean Couturier and Matt Read who could stick with the team because of their ability to play on the 3rd and 4th line Akeson needs to be given a top six role. While his speed and defensive ability are improving he's not suited for 4th line play. But with Danny Briere likely on his way out a top six role for a space creating playmaker has opened up. And with a limited free agent market and a reduced salary cap it will be difficult for the Flyers to go out and buy a replacement.

We saw how he did skating with friend/mentor Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek tonight. Earlier this year we saw another young undrafted AHLer be given a shot with two superstars in Tampa Bay. Cory Conacher, who led the AHL in points in 2011-12, skated on a line with Martin St. Louis and Steven Stamkos and he produced enough points to get him into the Rookie of the Year conversation. Akeson's size and skill set compared to Conacher should translate to even better to the NHL so it wouldn't be unreasonable to give Akeson time on the Flyers top line. His ability to create space on his own could be a real facilitator for Claude Giroux. And if Akeson played on a line with Giroux and Voracek for some or most of the season he could easily put up enough points to get himself in Calder Trophy consideration.

Keeping Akeson on the Flyers next season could also really help the Flyers cap situation. Akeson only has a $900,000 cap hit. If the Flyers could get a top six forward for less than a million dollars it would be much easier to go out and get an expensive defenseman.

I think Akeson could end up being a Martin Erat type player. Erat, who was drafted 191st Overall in 1999, has turned into a very solid player scoring 49 or more points in each of the last 8 seasons. Earlier this year Erat was traded for Filip Forsberg, one of the top prospects in the NHL, which shows how valuable an Erat type player can be. Though Erat is slightly bigger they play a similar style and their AHL production was similar (Akeson's was slightly better).

You may be thinking that I'm overreacting a little bit calling him a Rookie of the Year candidate, but his age and years of professional experience will definitely help his candidacy if he plays all of next season. Mostly because he wouldn't hit the wall like younger and less experience players. I may be reading too much into one strong game but I've been thinking Akeson would turn into a great pro ever since the Flyers signed him and I'm happy to see him get his shot.

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Underrated Prospect: Defenseman Valeri Vasiliev

Today at 11:30 AM EST the Flyers 2012 7th Round Pick Valeri Vasiliev and MHC Spartak will play in game three of the championship series of the Russian junior league (the MHL). MHC Spartak, the junior team of Spartak Moscow of the KHL, finished 2nd in the West and trail in the series two games to one against Omskie Yastreby who only lost 8 of their 61 games this season.

Vasiliev is a very interesting prospect. He was picked in the 7th round last year, partially due to a shoulder injury, partially due to the fact that he was a Russian. The "Russian Factor" (the fear that a Russian player may leave North America for the KHL at a young age or may never come to North America at all) has caused a lot of great Russian prospects to fall in the draft. And Vasiliev could be a really strong prospect.

He isn't a flashy player. At 6'2, 207lbs he is a big physical defenseman who can really throw his weight around. He's got good mobility especially for a stay at home defenseman and could be compared to players like Alexei Emelin of the Montreal Canadiens and even somebody like Luke Schenn. He may never be an All-Star in NHL but he could be a great depth defenseman.

Though Vasiliev spent most of the season in the MHL, he did get a brief 11 game stint in the KHL. He got one assist in his 11 games but I think his ice time tells an interesting story. In his first seven games Vasiliev averaged only 8:31 TOI. In his 8th game with the team Vasiliev played 15:16. Then the KHL, like most European leagues, took a short week and a half break before the final 3 games of the season. In his Spartak Moscow's final games of the season Vasiliev averaged about 18:46 of ice time, playing 19:05 in the teams last game of season against cross town rivals CSKA Moscow. Obviously Vasiliev only got a shot because Spartak was out of the playoff race but as we are seeing with Erik Gustafsson an increase in playing time reflects a coaches confidence in a more developed player.

But what about the "Russian Factor"? What if he never comes to play in North America? I think Vasiliev is destine to play in North America. First reason I think that is because where he was drafted. Not in the 2012 NHL Draft, but where he was selected in 2011 KHL Junior Draft. Vasiliev was the 1st ranked Russian defenseman in the 2011 KHL Junior Draft but he was the 7th Russian defenseman selected. That makes me think that the Russian teams don't see Vasiliev as a long term player. Second, before he was called up by Spartak Moscow, Vasiliev was already planning on coming to North America and joining the Waterloo Blackhawks of the USHL. A pit stop in the USHL is usually a launching pad to the NCAA or the Canadian Junior leagues. People like Bill Meltzer and sites like Broad Street Hockey reported Vasiliev to Waterloo as a done deal but the opportunity to play professionally in the KHL was too good to pass up. Though he may have shunned North America this year his willingness to leave Russia shows he wants to play in the NHL.

Vasiliev will likely play full time in the KHL next season and has a very good shot at making the Russian World Junior team. For now I'm very interested in seeing how Vasiliev plays in the MHL Championship series.

Friday, April 19, 2013

Flyers Prospects begin play in CHL Conference Finals Tonight

While the Flyers and Phantoms seasons are winding down; conference finals for all three CHL leagues (OHL, WHL, and QMJHL) are just starting up and there are several Flyers prospects looking to make it to their respective league championships.

OHL - LONDON KNIGHTS vs PLYMOUTH WHALERS
G - Anthony Stolarz - London Knights

London has been the best team in the OHL all season. With a .722 winning percentage, they won 50 games, six more games than any other team in the league and 8 more then their opponents the Whalers. Flyers 2012 2nd Round pick Anthony Stolarz joined the team halfway through the season after not getting many starts with Nebraska-Omaha in the NCAA. Stolarz has played great since coming to the Knights and has really stepped up it up in the Playoffs. His .946 Save percentage ties him with 2012 World Junior Gold Medalist John Gibson for third best amongst playoff goalies while his 1.76 GAA is second to only by 2012 first round pick Malcom Subban.

London is expected by many to win not only this series but to repeat as OHL champions. Stolarz will have to be on his game for the next few weeks to get them back to the memorial cup.

WHL - PORTLAND WINTERHAWKS vs KAMLOOPS BLAZERS
LW - Taylor Leier - Portland Winterhawks

Portland dominated the WHL just as London did in the OHL. Stacked with top prospects like Ty Rattie and Derrick Pouliot and some of the top players in this years draft like Seth Jones and Oliver Bjorkstrand the Winterhawks won .812% of their games this season. But part of Portland's success is due to depth players like Flyers 2012 4th Round pick Taylor Leier. Leier is a strong two way forward who scored 25 more points this season then last, and has scored 5 goals and 10 points in ten playoff games this season.

Portland have a strong chance at beating Kamloops and reaching the WHL final where they could have a re-match of last season's championship series with the Edmonton Oil Kings.

QMJHL - BAIE-COMEAU DRAKKAR vs BLAINVILLE-BOISBRIAND ARMADA
RW - Petr Straka - Baie-Comeau Drakkar
LW - Christopher Clapperton - Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (2012 Prospect Camp Invitee)
G - Etienne Marcoux - Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (2012 Prospect Camp Invitee)

The Drakkar and Armada finished second and fourth respectively in the QMJHL. While neither team has had as impressive regular seasons as Portland or London both have done incredibly well in the QMJHL playoffs. Baie-Comeau has yet to lose a game, sweeping Sherbrooke and Victoriaville en route to the conference finals, while Blainville-Boisbriand (owned in part by Danny Briere and Flyers Director of Player Development Ian Laperriere) has only lost one game in the playoffs.

Straka, a former 2nd round pick of the Blue Jackets who the Flyers signed as a Free Agent a little over a week ago, led the Drakkar in points this season and is third in playoff scoring with 18 points (his 2.25 points per game is a playoff best). Clapperton, who many assumed would have been given a tryout with the Flyers before the season had the season started on time, has been almost as impressive leading the Armada with 17 points this playoff season. Marcoux, who started in net when the QMJHL All-Stars played the Russian Junior selects back in the fall, has played very well this post season and has not lost in regulation.

This is the closest match up involving any Flyers prospects (or at least some players on the Flyers radar). The Drakkar have been the stronger team this season but the Armada won the season series 2-1. This will certainly be an interesting match up.

Thursday, April 18, 2013

Are the Flyers really that bad at Drafting goalies?

Earlier today goalie Joacim Eriksson and his team, SkellefteƄ, won the championship in the Elitserien the top league in Sweden and one of the top leagues in Europe. Eriksson was the Flyers 7th round draft pick back in 2008. A little further south of Sweden the Flyers' 2006 4th round pick goaltender Jakub Kovar led the Czech Extraliga in Save percentage and GAA. Kovar also has a pair World Championship Bronze medals on his shelf.

The Flyers have been much maligned for being terrible at drafting goaltenders. Between 2001 and 2010 the Flyers drafted 15 goalies who played a combined 19 minutes in the NHL. But Eriksson and Kovar might be signs of change. But they are also a sign of caution. Eriksson didn't start playing great in the top Swedish league until last season, 3 years after he was drafted. Same with Kovar who didn't earn a starting job in the Czech Republic until 4 years after he was drafted by the Flyers. 

The time between draft and development is one thing that makes drafting goalies so tough. I was upset when 2012 2nd Round Pick Anthony Stolarz moved from Nebraska-Omaha in the NCAA to London in the OHL. It means that after next season Stolarz will be out of Juniors and will either be in the Flyers system or like Memorial Cup Champion and 2008 3rd Round pick Jacob DeSerres stuck on the outside looking in. DeSerres went from winning the Memorial Cup in 2011 to playing in the Canadian College league which rarely if ever produces NHLers. Europe and the NCAA gives goalies a longer chance to develop and a smoother transition into the pro game.

The Flyers have shown that they don't mind drafting players who they know will have a long development in front of them. They have drafted a number of players who were bound for NCAA in recent years. If the Flyers go forward and draft goalies out of Europe or are bound for the NCAA where they have longer to develop the Flyers could be able to do what people have been saying for years they couldn't: draft their next franchise goalie.

If the Flyers choose to buyout Ilya Bryzgalov, which I don't think they will or should do, they could give Kovar or possibly Eriksson a shot if they are able to sign them. I think they both have a better shot at becoming a starter in the NHL than Steve Mason who has been pretty bad for a long time. While Mason had a great season and then fizzled Kovar and Eriksson, both around Mason's age, have been able slowly and steadily getting better and better. The biggest obstacle in goaltender development is after they get to the NHL, and after NHL teams and shooters see them enough and figure out how they play, can a goalie continue to develop and continue to improve. Mason hasn't been able to change and develop after teams figured him out after his stellar rookie year, while Kovar and Eriksson, who have already faced this adversity before, are more likely to develop into an NHL goalie.

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Defensemen Brandon Manning and Matt Konan recalled from Adirondack

After Kent Huskins suffered a concussion against the Canadiens the Flyers have recalled Brandon Manning, who played four games with the Flyers last season, and Matt Konan, who the Flyers signed as an overage player last off-season.

Manning has had some issues this season with the Phantoms this season. Though he was the Phantoms only representative to the All-Star game he has one of the worst +/- in the league. Part of that is due to a weak Phantoms team and Manning usually playing against other teams top offensive lines. The Flyers are obviously hopeful that Manning will develop into a solid NHLer and all the injuries have given him another opportunity with the team.

Recalling Matt Konan is an interesting move. I saw Konan at Flyers prospect camp last summer and was very impressed. The first day that I was there the only player who scored with as much regularity as Konan was Scott Laughton. Konan has great good size, standing 6'3 but only weighing around 190 lbs, and good speed. He started this season in the ECHL; forced down by an overabundance of defenseman with the Phantoms. His point production this year with the Phantoms has been nothing special scoring only 6 points in 42 games. But the fact the Flyers are bringing him up shows that they have faith in him and that he posses a defensive ability that doesn't show up on the stat sheet.

These players may be a little while from being full time NHLers but any experience they get this season will definitely help and quicken their development.

Sunday, April 14, 2013

Which Phantoms could get a shot with the Flyers this season?

Due to the lockout the AHL season ends a week before the NHL season. Due to the underwhelming performances both the Flyers and their AHL counterparts are outside of the playoff picture as the season is winding down. This gives the Flyers a great opportunity to give a few of their young prospects there first look at the NHL. They've already been forced to use some of there AHLers this season, like Tye McGinn and Oliver Lauridsen, because of injuries.

JASON AKESON - RIGHT WING - 19 G, 32 A, 51 P in 59 GAMES in 2012-13

Jason Akeson made a name for himself back in 2010-11 when he ended the OHL season tied for the league lead with 108 points; tallying a whopping 84 assists. During his rookie year in the AHL he finished 2nd on the team in points behind Matt Ford who spent half his season in Hershey. He has followed up that season by leading the Phantoms in goals and points even though he spent the early part of the year in the ECHL; forced down by the influx of lockout players. Akeson has been a great passer and playmaker during his time in both the Ontario and American hockey leagues but the knock against him was that he wasn't much of a goal scorer. Though his 19 goals may not be jaw dropping it does lead the team and show his ability to improve his game. Paired with the right player, like Sean Couturier who he showed great chemistry with during the lockout, Akeson could be a great asset going forward.

MARCEL NOEBELS - CENTER/LEFT WING - 12 G, 9 A, 21 P in 40 GAMES in 2012-13

Last year Marcel Noebels centered one of the best lines in junior hockey with the Portland Winterhawks. Along with Calgary Flames prospect Sven Baertschi and St. Louis' Ty Rattie he helped the Winterhawks to the WHL final. He started this season in the ECHL where he put up 30 points in 31 games before getting called up to the Phantoms. He started making an impact as soon as he got to Glen Falls. His 12 goals ties him for 4th on the team behind Jason Akeson, Braydon Schenn, and Tye McGinn. He has NHL ready size (6'2, 205 lbs) and defensive ability though his skating may still need some work. His defensive ability and positionable flexibility could make him the most likely call up candidate.

BRANDON MANNING - DEFENSE - 6 G, 15 A, 21 P in 65 GAMES in 2012-13

Manning might seem like the most likely candidate to be called up. He laced up the skates 4 times for the Flyers last season. He was the Phantoms only representative at the AHL All-Star game due to the end of the lockout out and an injury to Erik Gustafsson. But Manning has had a lack luster year. His play has been undisciplined, his point production has been down, and his -28 is the worst on the team. Still the Flyers may want to give him a shot with all the injuries on the blue line.

MARK ALT - DEFENSE - 0 G, 7 A, 7 P in 39 G for U. of MINNESOTA in 2012-13

Though Alt had a down year statistically in 2012-13 he had a strong 2011-12 campaign with the Golden Gophers scoring 5 goals and totaling 22 points. He's got great size (6'3, 203 lbs) and good mobility. He had an assist in his first AHL game and scored the shoot out winner in his second. Alt could get called up and play in place of Kent Huskins or Bruno Gervais towards the end of the season.

NICK COUSINS - CENTER - 27 G, 76 A, 103 P for SAULT. STE. MARIE in 2012-13

Cousins would likely have been the OHL points leader this season if he wasn't suspended for four games near the end of the season. He likely also would have been on the Canadian World Junior team if he hadn't been charged for sexual assault in the off-season, charges which have since been dropped. Cousins has the ability to put up points, at least at the junior level, but he could make the biggest impact in the NHL as a pesty forward, maybe be a bit of both and end up like an Alex Burrows type. Cousins amateur resume is much more impressive than his limited professional work, he has yet to register a point in 4 AHL games this season, so maybe the Flyers want him to stick in the AHL for the rest of this season. But maybe they bring him up to supply an angry little spark for the last couple games of the season.

Obviously a player like Tye McGinn has a great chance at getting called up again. I didn't include him because everyone knows him and knows how he plays. Scott Laughton is currently playing with the Phantoms, but if he were to play another game with the Flyers it would burn a year off his Entry Level Contract which the Flyers would never do. Eric Wellwood could be out a long time after cutting his leg open and losing a scary amount of blood. Outside of Noebels, Cousins, McGinn, Laughton, and Wellwood there are no Flyers draft picks on the Phantoms.

Should the Flyers look to Russia more for young prospects?

A few days ago reports out of Russia surfaced saying that the Flyers have extended an offer to 21 year old Sibir Novosibirst defenseman Nikita Zaitsev. The Flyers were interested in Zaitsev back at the 2010 draft but they, along with the rest of the league, decided to pass on puck moving defenseman. The Flyers now wish to revisit the young Russian following his break out season; scoring 7 goals and 18 points he put up 11 more points than his previous three seasons in the KHL combined.

Zaitsev might sign with the Flyers and will have a good shot at making the team in the first year of his contract. But what Zaitsev, and the Flyers pursuit of him, represents is a mostly untapped reservoir of young talented players.

Most people have heard about the "Russian Factor" around the NHL Draft. The "Russian Factor" is the fear NHL teams have that if they draft a Russian that player may never play in the NHL or that they may not stick with a team if they are not happy with their role. The fear that lucrative contracts and the ability to be a star in the KHL may keep a lot of mid-level Russians from going to or staying in North America. And since no team wants to waste a draft pick on a player who may never be in their organization a lot of Russians are passed over in the draft. In the past three drafts only 21 players from former Soviet states (Russia, Belarus, Latvia, etc.) we're selected after the first round. Of those 21, only 13 were trained in Russia and of those 13 Russian trained players only 6 of them were selected before the 7th round when teams are more likely to gamble with a pick.

The higher a player is taken in the KHL Junior draft the more likely they are to completely fall out of the draft.  Zaitsev was taken 4th overall in the inaugural KHL draft in 2009 before going undrafted in 2010 (players are drafted when they are 17 years old in the KHL while they are drafted when they're 18 years old in the NHL). Anton Slepyshev was selected first overall in the 2011 KHL Junior draft and went undrafted at the 2012 NHL even though he was ranked as the 10th best European skater.

What is left over is a wealth of young Russian players whose rights aren't owned by any NHL team. Players who have been playing against adults since they were 17 or 18 years old meaning they have been playing against bigger, faster, stronger, and tougher competition than their North American counter parts. Most mid-level draft picks like Nick Cousins or Tye McGinn will have to spend a few seasons in juniors followed by a season or two in the AHL before they even get a shot at the NHL. Russian players will have spent three years in a professional league by the time most North Americans are entering the AHL. This means that Russians like Zaitsev and Slepyshev can make the jump to the NHL and make an impact at that level at a younger age than mid-level North American draft picks.

The Flyers have one of the shallowest prospect pools in the league. Some of that is due to trading picks and prospects. Some of that is due to being a bad drafting team (since 2001 only 6 non-first round draft picks have played more than 100 games in the NHL). But the Flyers have made up for this by exploring alternative paths like overage CHL players (like Phantoms leading scorer Jason Akeson), NCAA free agents (like Matt Read), and undrafted Russians (like Sergei Bobrovsky and possibly Nikita Zaitsev). The Russian option will produce the more and most NHL ready players and it should be an option the Flyers go to more often.