Friday, May 31, 2013

Flyers sign D Maxim Lamarche and F Michael Raffl. What can we expect from them?

The Flyers had a big day yesterday bringing a couple of decent undrafted prospects in defenseman Maxim Lamarche and winger Michael Raffl. Lamarche is coming from the Baie-Comeau Drakkar of the QMJHL where he played with Petr Straka, another of the Flyers free agent prospect signings. Raffl, an Austrian, was playing in Sweden with Leksands.

Lamarche had a bit of a break out season this year with Baie-Comeau. After putting up 28 points and being a -40 in his draft eligible year two seasons ago; Lamarche is coming off a monster year where he scored 43 points in 55 games and was a whopping +31. Along with his offensive production Lamarche, who is 6'2 192 lbs, is pretty physical and is pretty willing to drop the gloves and throw hands. This season he helped Baie-Comeau to a second place finish in the QMJHL losing to Memorial Cup Champions Halifax Mooseheads. The Flyers have been good at snagging late developing junior players. Last year they signed Matt Konan after his break out year in the WHL. We all know that it takes defensemen more time to develop. Maybe guys like Lamarche and Konan, who weren't sought after as 17 and 18 year olds, needed a little more time to develop in good or even great prospects. Lamarche is at least a season or two away from getting his shot at the NHL. And with the Phantoms' defense loaded with young talent it will be interesting to see how long it takes for him to find his place on the team. If he can develop like fellow undrafted junior defensemen Matt Konan and Brandon Manning we could be seeing Lamarche in a Flyers jersey a little bit down the road.

A bit closer to the NHL is Michael Raffl. The 24 year old Raffl has spent his entire career in Europe, first playing in his native Austria before making the jump to Leksands in Sweden's second league the Allsvenskan. Raffl helped Leksands to the Allsvenskan Championship as the teams leading scorer. Without the help of any lockout players (though the team did have top prospects Filip Forsberg and Jacob de la Rose) Raffl scored 24 goals and 46 points in 49 games. Raffl caught the eye of the Flyers and the rest of the NHL at the World Championships. While Raffl didn't put up great numbers (3 points in 7 games) he played well enough to get multiple NHL teams to go after him. The Flyers have dabbled in players coming out of Europe in their mid twenties before. Jiri Dopita, while he is considered a disappointment, but up pretty good numbers (27 points in 52 games) with the Flyers. Ville Leino was an MVP in Finland's SM-liiga before he was brought over by Detroit. As long as team teams expectations for Raffl aren't short term or too unrealistic like they were with Dopita he could become a key contributor. It sounds like the Flyers will give Raffl a chance to make team out of training camp. The same opportunity was given to Matt Read, a fellow 24 year old undrafted free agent, a couple of seasons ago. While Raffl may never be Matt Read, but if he works hard he could have a spot on the 3rd or 4th line this up coming season.

After what has been a slightly disappointing offseason for the Flyers (in terms of signing undrafted free agents) these two signing are a major coup for the team.

A bit of a post script, the Lamarche signing could be a signal as to who the Flyers will draft with the 11th Overall pick in the upcoming draft. While there is still a chance players like Valeri Nichushkin, Elias Lindholm, and Rasmus Ristolainen may still be on the board when it comes time for the Flyers to pick it isn't necessarily likely. One player that likely will be on the board at the 11th pick is winger Valentin Zykov. Zykov played in Baie-Comeau along with Lamarche and Petr Straka. The Flyers clearly think highly of the team and they have a recent history of drafting players from teams where they currently have prospects playing. While there is still a chance one of the big players will fall; if I was a betting man I'd put my money on the Flyers drafting Zykov.

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

This is the Draft to Buy in on Russians

The Flyers have kind of made a habit out of not drafting Russians. They have only drafted 3 Russians in the last 10 drafts. As I've mentioned before, that doesn't mean the Flyers are anti-Russian, but that they prefer to draft North Americans which are viewed as safer bets. The league as a whole has shifted away from drafting Russian trained Russians due to the fear that those players wont come over to the NHL. But with this draft class loaded with talent the time is right for the Flyers to turn to Russia from top prospects.

Over the past four drafts there have only been 36 Russians taken. 7 in 2009, 8 in 2010, 9 in 2011, and 12 in 2012. The rise in Russians selected is most likely due to the amount of Russians coming over to the CHL. Of those 36 Russians only 22 were trained in Russia. There hasn't been more than 6 Russian trained Russians selected in any of the last four drafts.

In the last four drafts there have only been 8 teams that have selected more than one Russian. Only 4 have selected multiple Russian trained Russians. St. Louis (who hasn't drafted a Russian since 2010), Florida (who drafted their Russians in the later rounds), Washington (who have only drafted a Russian in 7th Round since 2010), and Tampa Bay (who is the only team that I believe is comfortable and confident in selecting Russian players).

The threat of young Russian players staying in the KHL has been real for the past few seasons. With more and more players going to or staying in Russia and more and more money being pumped into the KHL; teams would be gambling if they drafted a Russian trained player. But as Bob Dylan once said the times they are a-changin'. More young Russians are coming over to the Canadian Junior leagues and even those who spend their junior careers in Russia are leaning more to NHL glory than KHL money. Recently Russia's most prominent hockey ambassador, Vladislav Tretiak (yeah, that Tretiak), said that Russia's humiliating 8-3 loss to the United States at World Championships was due to the team lacking NHL talent; essentially bashing the quality of play in the KHL.

With Russia's recent success at the World Junior level we can see that Russia is brimming with young talent. And as Vladimir Tarasenko showed players who come over from the KHL are usually closer to being NHL ready. Most Europeans are closer to being NHL ready due to the fact that they are playing against grown men at 17 or 18 years old as opposed to North American who are playing against 16-20 year olds. With guys like Valeri Nichushkin, who says he's planning on playing in North America next season, it appears that young Russians will again be flooding into the NHL soon.

But a lot of NHL teams are usually set in their ways. Only one team has drafted multiple Russian trained Russians in a single draft in the last two seasons. Could the Flyers really change their ways and draft multiple Russians? Two or more Russian trained Russians? I think if a team buys in on Russians in this draft they will be pleasantly surprised.

In my post about who the Flyers could draft in the 2nd Round, I mentioned that a few Russians were dark horse candidates. Big center Bogdan Yakimov, winger Pavel Buchnevich, and KHL Champion defenseman Andrei Mironov. Behind them is Anton Slepyshev, a big winger who was the 10th ranked European skater in last year and went completely undrafted due to the fact that he was expected to be a KHL lifer. Now there are rumors that he wants to come over to North America after his KHL contract expires after the 2013-14 season. Then there is defenseman Rushan Rafikov who was one of the Lokomotiv Yaroslavl players who trained in Lancaster earlier this year. Winger Vyacheslav Leschenko who jumped 71 spots between the Midterm and Final rankings on the NHL Central Scouting's list. Towards the end of the draft is one of my favorites is 6'7 230 lbs defenseman Nikita Tryamkin. Ranked as the 123 best European skaker (a spot where players aren't usually drafted) but spent over half the season in the KHL and scored 8 goals and 18 points in the 28 games he played in the Russian junior league. Between Leschenko and Tryamkin there are plenty of talented players that play all sorts of roles.

Would the Flyers select one of these players? Two? Three? What if I told you there is a very good chance the Flyers select a Russian the 1st Round of the draft. The best forward and defenseman that will likely be available at the 11th pick will the Canadian trained Russians (F) Valentin Zykov and (D) Nikita Zadorov. There is even a chance that Valeri Nichushkin could fall all the way to 11th (remember last year Mikhail Grigorenko was supposed to be a top 3 pick and fell all the way to 12)

So would the Flyers draft multiple Russians? I don't know. They have looked more towards Russia recently. They drafted Valeri Vasiliev last season. But there is gold in those Russian hills. If they were to draft a couple of Russian trained players I don't doubt that they would be quality NHLers.

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Thursday, May 16, 2013

Who Might the Flyers take in the 2nd Round?

We all have an idea of who the Flyers should take in the first round. And while I have my own ideas of who they might take with the 11th Overall pick I wanted to take a look at who they might take with the 41st Overall pick.

I mentioned in my article yesterday that the Flyers have traded away every one of their second round picks with Paul Holmgren as GM (they did have second round picks in 2007 and 2012 that they got via trade). While the Flyers trading their pick is still a possibility, I don't think it is likely. Holmgren has started to value the draft more and specifically the second round. Last year was there first time picking in the 2nd round in five years and their two major prospect acquisitions from this season (Mark Alt and Petr Straka) were both second round picks in 2010.

The second round is less predictable. You have less of an idea of who is going to be on the board and you never know who if the team values a player higher than NHL Central Scouting. So I tried to cast a wide net.

THE WHEEL HOUSE
These are players that are expect to be available when the Flyers pick. Ranked by how likely I think the Flyers are to draft them.

Madison Bowey - Defense - Kelowna Rockets - 6'1 200 lbs
I've seen Bowie compared with former Rocket and current Flyer Luke Schenn. He is not quite as physical (few defensemen are) but he is a better skater and has more offensive potential. Another plus for Bowey is where he plays. Kelowna has a reputation as a defenseman factory producing 2nd Rounders like Shea Weber and Duncan Keith (though Keith was drafted out of Michigan State).

Linus Arnesson - Defense - Djurgarden (Sweden) - 6'1 179 lbs
I mentioned in my article yesterday (not to continuously pimp that article) that this draft is loaded with Jonas Brodin type defensemen. While Arnesson may take slightly longer to develop than Brodin he plays a similar style game. Not overly physical, not overwhelmingly offensive, but very very smart. He made Sweden's World Junior team and he spent most of the season playing professionally in Sweden.

J.T. Compher - Center - US National Development Team - 6'0 161 lbs
Compher would probably me much higher if he had not been plagued with injury all season. Instead of improving his draft stock he has fallen in the rankings from 20th to 34th among North American prospects. Compher still has a ton of skill. According to TSN's Craig Button he has "the attributes of skill and will in his game" which sounds like the type of player the Flyers like. Compher will attend Boston College in the fall so he'll be attending an elite program with a history of producing NHLers.

Dillon Heatherington - Defense - Swift Current Broncos - 6'3 196 lbs
Heatherington is a large smart defenseman. Not overly physical not an offensive dynamo, but both aspects of his game have been steadily improving all season. Which is probably why Heatherington jumped for 44th to 31st in the final North American draft ranking. The Flyers have shown that they like big defensemen which could bode well for Dillon.

Nicolas Petan - Center - Portland Winterhawks - 5'8 161 lbs
Petan tied for the WHL lead in points this past season with 120. He finished second in playoff scoring to linemate Ty Rattie. In total he scored 148 points in 92 games this season. Those numbers are pretty gaudy but there are a few reasons Petan might be a riskier pick. First is his spike in point production. Last year Petan only scored 35 points in 83 games (combining regular and post seasons). That massive spike could be caused from his development as a player or because he started skating on a better line. I think it was a combination of both. Another warning sign will be his size. He is quite small and for every Marty St. Louis and Danny Briere there are a hundred skilled small forwards who never make it to the NHL. But the Flyers do have a recent history of selecting players who are currently playing with Flyers draft picks so Petan is probably on their radar.


 OFF THE BOARD
These are players who should go a few picks after the 41st Overall pick, but the Flyers could pick if they have them ranked highly.

Oliver Bjorkstrand - Right Wing - Portland Winterhawks - 5'11 163 lbs
I think that the Flyers are actually more likely to take Bjorkstrand than Petan, but it would probably come as a surprise to people. Bjorkstrand plays on a line with Flyers prospect Taylor Leier and has quite the scoring touch. He played pro hockey in his native Denmark and did pretty well (26 points in 36 games) before coming to the WHL. He models himself after Zach Parise.

Viktor Rydberg - Center - Linkoping (Sweden) - 6'0 187 lbs
Rydberg spent most of his season in the Swedish junior league where he scored 35 points in 35 games. He played one game with Linkoping in Sweden's top league and will likely spend most if not all of next season in the Elitserien. He's defensively responsible and has been steadily improving as he's moved up the ranks.

Wilhelm Westlund - Defense - Farjestad (Sweden) - 6'0 178 lbs 
Westlund played 26 games with Farjestad in the Elitserien and while he was only able to score one goal in Sweden's top league he was able to score 15 points in 33 games in the Swedish junior league. Westlund was a late addition to the Swedish U18 team where he was quite impressive at the U18 Championships.

Adam Tambellini - Center/Left Wing - Surrey Eagles (BCHL) - 6'2 174 lbs
The son of LA Kings GM Steve Tambellini has had an impressive showing in his two seasons in the BCHL. He's scored 121 points in 107 games over two seasons. The older Tambellini is close with Paul Holmgren, and the Flyers have signed players out of the BCHL so they have probably given Adam a look. He will be playing for North Dakota in the fall. 


Jonathan-Ismael Diaby - Defense - Victoriaville Tigres - 6'5 223 lbs
Big physical defenseman who is a pretty skilled fighter. He has good speed but I've seen multiple places refer to him as a project or even a gamble.


HAVE TO FALL
Players that will likely be off the board before the Flyers 2nd Round pick comes around, but could right into the Flyers lap. Ranked by how likely they are to fall.

Adam Erne - Left Wing - Quebec Ramparts - 6'0 210 lbs




Though Erne is slightly undersized for a power forward, he still has the strength speed and net know how to be effective. The Flyers love for strong forwards who can crash the net could mean that they snap up Erne if he falls to where the Flyers are picking.

Joshua Morrisey - Defense - Prince Albert Raiders - 6'0 186 lbs

Morrisey is the lead singer of The Smiths one of the fastest defensemen in this years draft. His point production wasn't incredible for such a fast player, but if you have speed you will likely have a spot on an NHL roster. If Morrisey falls he'll be too good of a prospect for the Flyers to pass up.

Morgan Klimchuk - Left Wing - Regina Pats - 5'11 180 lbs
Klimchuk has steadily improved an will likely be one of the bigger name players taken in the second round. His ability to improve all aspects of his game and his willingness to do the dirty work to improve his game could make one of the top prospects of the second round. If he fell to 41st Overall I don't think the Flyers would pass him up.

Ian McCoshen - Defense - Waterloo Blackhawks (USHL) - 6'3 207 lbs
McCoshen is a big strong defenseman who can also produce points (44 points in 53 games in the USHL). Probably the best of this group and could go late in the first. It would take a little bit of luck if he fell to the Flyers.

Zachary Fucale - Goalie - Halifax Mooseheads - 6'1 176 lbs
The top goalie in this years draft; Fucale has lead his Mooseheads team to a QMJHL Championship and could easily win the Memorial Cup. Slightly smaller than most goalies in the league now, but a lot of people have called Fucale "dominant". Some people have Fucale going in the top 10 picks, but drafting goalies is weird and he could fall all the way down to 41st Overall.


DARK HORSES
These are players will likely be available but may not likely be picked by the Flyers. These three players have one thing in common. They all play or are going to play in the KHL.

Marko Dano - Center - Slovan Bratislava - 5'11 178 lbs
Dano spent most of this season with Slovan in the KHL. He put up pretty good points for a 17 year old playing in the second best league in the world and he scored a goal and an assist in 5 games at the World Championships. Dano's production and the fact that he is Slovakian and not Russian makes it more likely that he will be first KHLer off the board in the second round. In an interview he did with Anthony SanFilippo Flyers Alum and European scout Ilkka Sinisalo said he was traveling to Slovakia for scouting, and according to the date of the interview he was likely going to see Dano and Slovan play a home game on December 8th of this year. Slovakia isn't a heavily scouted area and if the Flyers were sending one of their scouts there it was likely to see Dano. If he had a good showing (he led his team in shots in a 2-1 loss) than maybe the Flyers take him.

Andrei Mironov - Defenseman - Dynamo Moscow - 6'2 176 lbs
Mironov was arguably Russia best defenseman for there Bronze Medal winning world junior team. He spent pretty much the whole season with Dynamo Moscow which is an impressive feat. Dynamo won back to back KHL championships in 2012 and 2013. That means that Mironov made the best team in the KHL and stuck with them as they won another Gagarin Cup. Mironov who likely has at least another 1 or 2 years left on his KHL contract could be the most NHL ready defenseman in this draft outside of Seth Jones or Rasmus Ristolainen.

Bogdan Yakimov - Center - Nizhnekamsk - 6'4 201 lbs
If the KHL season was as long as a full length NHL season we may be looking at Yakimov the same way we are looking at Valeri Nichushkin. Yakimov excelled in the Russian junior league and was then bumped up to the VHL, the Russian minor league scoring 13 points in 16 games after being traded to the Nizhnekamsk organization. The big center would likely have been bumped up to the KHL if their season was just a little bit longer. I feel like the Russian factor will affect Yakimov's draft position quite a bit and he could be available when the Flyers pick in the 3rd round. But if Yakimov makes it known that he wants to come over to North America then the Flyers would be hard pressed to pass up the big center.

Pavel Buchnevich - Left Wing - Cherepovets - 6'1 161 lbs
The small yet skilled winger is the highest ranked of these four dark horses. He like Dano and Mironov spent some time in the KHL; Buchnevich scored a goal and an assist in 12 games with Cherepovets. He's got skill and could be a top six player in the NHL, but I think if the Flyers have to choose between Buchnevich and guys like Dano (who will likely come over), Mironov (an NHL ready defenseman), and Yakimov (the big power forward) he would be ranked the lowest on their list. But if Buchnevich is available later in the draft they may snatch him up.


And those are the players I think the Flyers might take in the second round. There are a lot of names, but there are a lot of factors that could change who is on the board when the Flyers are drafting.

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Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Flyers Recent Draft Trends

It's been kind of a long lay off since my last post, but I've been doing some work trying to figure out who the Flyers might take in the upcoming draft.

The upcoming draft will be Paul Holmgren's 7th as the Flyers GM. In his time as GM we have seen the Flyers make a major sea change in how they view the draft. For the first four seasons as Flyers GM Holmgren viewed the Flyers draft picks, and especially their high draft picks, as valuable trade assets. The Flyers traded their 1st Round picks from 2009, 2010, and 2011. Under Holmgren the Flyers have traded every one of their 2nd Round picks (their 2007 and 2012 2nd round picks they got via trade). This also led the Flyers to undervaluing their amateur scouting. That is why very few the Flyers recent draft picks have developed into NHLers or promising prospects.

But in the last few years the Flyers have started to value the draft more. We are trading fewer picks and digging more into amateur scouting. I took a look at Flyers recent drafts and noticed some trends. Hopefully this will help us better predict who the Flyers will take in the upcoming draft.

SHIFTING FOCUS FROM THE WHL/QMJHL TO THE OHL

From 2007 to 2010 the Flyers drafted 14 players out of the Canadian Junior leagues. 7 from the Quebec Major Junior League, 5 from the Western Hockey League, and only 2 from the Ontario Hockey League. Those players from the QMJHL and WHL,with the exception of Luca Sbisa, have combined to only play 73 games in the NHL. The two players from the OHL, Zac Rinaldo and Eric Wellwood, have combined for 129 games in the NHL. That may have been the catalyst for the Flyers change in ideology. In the last two drafts the Flyers have taken 4 players out of the OHL, 2 out of the WHL, and only 1 from the QMJ (that player being Sean Couturier who fell much further than anyone expected). The Flyers may go back to the OHL in this draft but I think there is another equally as important factor that may decide who the Flyers take (and who they take early).

DRAFTING PLAYERS WHO ARE PLAYING WITH FLYERS DRAFT PICKS

Scott Laughton plays on a team with 2011 4th Round pick Colin Suellentrop. 2012 4th Round pick Taylor Leier was playing with 2011 4th Round Pick Marcel Noebels. The Flyers showed last year that they like taking players who were currently playing with Flyers draft picks. One big reason for this is that Flyers prospects are looked at by everybody in the organization (management, scouts, even coaches). So if a draft eligible player is skating with a Flyers prospect they will be seen more than other prospects and seen more by people with power.

Also, if you look at Shayne Gostisbehere he was playing with Jeremy Welsh who was one of the top college free agents and was definitely scouted by the Flyers. Playing with Braydon Coburn's brother Greg probably also drew some extra eyes to the under the radar defenseman.

This trend bodes well for guys like D Nikita Zadorov (who plays for London with G prospect Anthony Stolarz) and F Valentin Zykov (who played with free agent signing Petr Straka in Baie-Comeau) who are both expected to go between 11-15. It could mean that London Knights Bo Horvat and Max Domi could go off the board before anyone expects. But this trend goes further than just the first round, I wouldn't be surprised if we see the Flyers draft multiple players who are currently playing with Flyers property.

TAKING SWEDES IN THE MID TO LATE ROUNDS

Under Holmgren the Flyers have only drafted 5 players out of Europe. Of those five players four of them were Swedes, and of those Swedes 3 of them were defensemen. There are a multitude of Swedish defensemen that are expected to come off the board between the 2nd and 4th rounds. Most of these defensemen are Jonas Brodin type (average size, pretty good point production, tons of smarts). While all three of the defensemen Holmgren has drafted out of Sweden have been big physical defensive defensemen I think the Flyers will go for a different type of Swedish defense I think they'll go a different way this season with the amount of talent coming off of Swedish blue lines in this draft.

LOWER ROUND GAMBLES

Everyone knows that players drafted in the later rounds are a long way from the NHL. They need more time to develop and a good percentage of them will never make it to the NHL. Recently in the later rounds the Flyers have been taking raw players. Players who have a lot of potential but might not be able to make the most out of their skill. If these players develop then the Flyers stole a player in the later rounds. If they don't turn out, well then they didn't waste anything that valuable.

One way to give these players time to develop is by drafting players who are heading to college. This allows them more time to develop before the Flyers have to sign them. Since 2010, 4 of the 8 players the Flyers have drafted in the 5th Round or later have gone to college the year after being drafted.


The Flyers last two drafts have been the best under Paul Holmgren. I expect them to keep with at least some of these trends in the upcoming draft.

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