The Flyers prospects had a lot to show at Player Development Camp on Tuesday. After the forwards and defensemen were split up on Monday; the two corps intermingled and we got to see some intriguing match ups. A lot the drills were 1 v 1 which showed the strengths and exposed some weakness' of the prospects.
Here is a recap of some of the players performances Tuesday.
Petr Straka, who was the most impressive player I saw on Monday, was showing off his skills again Tuesday morning. Probably the part of this game most on display today was his speed. One drill required the forward to receive a pass from a defenseman, skate around obstacles through the neutral zone, turn around at the far blue line and the go in one on one against the defenseman. Straka was able to use his speed to get the defenseman back on their heels and was usually able to release a shot unincumbered. Straka did fumble the puck a couple times, but was overall strong on the puck. A left handed right wing, Straka has a great ability to cut to the middle from the right wing, something a Jakub Voracek just developed last year. He struggles mightily cutting from the left wing to the center; so I wouldn't count on him pulling the reverse Ovechkin anytime soon.
Nick Cousins probably put on his most impressive performance at a Flyers Prospect camp ever on Tuesday. He was able to show off some of the skills that made him one of the OHL's top players over the past two seasons. A two on one drill allowed him to show off his impressive passing skills. And he was able to show off his hands and was able to create space on multiple one on one drills.
Mark Alt was probably the most impressive defenseman at camp today. Alt's raw skill has been talked about a lot since the Flyers acquired him. Andreas Lilja called him "something special" (which might not sound like a lot, but he has played with some great defensemen in his time and more importantly some defenseman who would go on to become great). What impressed me most about Alt was his positioning. He always always between the shooter and the goalie, preventing the shooter from getting a quality shot. He used his big frame and considerable strengths to drive players outside. He was an all around defensive force. That is all on top of offensive skill. He can make a quick first past and has a very heavy wrist shot, probably the hardest amongst defensemen at camp.
I got a much better look at 2011 First Round pick Scott Laughton on Tuesday. I thought he looked good after seeing him briefly on Monday, but he is apparently at a whole other level. Laughton has showed off some impressive offensive skills. He has very good hands and showed no fear in using those hands against some of the Flyers top defensive prospects. His shot has always been impressive, but he seems to have become more accurate. His tenacity and willingness to initiate contact with defensemen allows him to drive defensemen back or catch them off guard and go right past them. We knew he was a smart player, we knew he was tough, we knew he was strong defensively, but he's become a much better offensive player than when we drafted him last season.
Shayne Gostisbehere was pretty tenacious in his own right. We all think of Gostisbehere as a small, puck moving, point producing forward; which he is. But if you've seen Gostisbehere, either at World Juniors or at Union, you'll know he has a physical side to him. Every time I watched play at Union I saw him step up and blow up a forward from the other team. He is an aggressive player. We didn't see him drop anybody at camp today, but we did see him use his speed to get into players faces and force them outside.
Robert Hagg had a strong Tuesday. His gap control and active stick made him a hard to play against one on one. Most of the time players couldn't even get a shot off. He has an impressive wrist shot but he isn't incredibly accurate. He did struggle in the two on one drills.
One player that I found surprisingly impressive as camp invitee Stephen Harper. Harper was ranked 38th Overall amongst North American skaters half way through the season. Craig Button had him as the 30th ranked prospect overall in October. But Harper struggled throughout the season, fell to be the 128th ranked North American skater by the end of the season, and fell completely off the board on draft day. Today I got my first look at Harper and you could see that first round potential he had at the start of the season. He's fast, aggressive, and has a quick release on his shot. Probably the most impressive part about Harper is how he plays away from the puck. In the two on one drill he would always put himself in the best position. I don't know why he struggled so much this past season. But he has tons of potential. He may be invited to the prospect camp in the fall, but I would love to see them sign him before another team sees his potential and snaps him up.
One of the most interesting drills was a one on one drill that pitted two players against each other for a long period of time (well a long period compared to the usual one on one drills). It was essentially a one on one battle until the forward scores, the defenseman clears the zone, or the goalie covered it. And since players were usually pitted up against the same player again and again we got a consistent look at how guys play. Here are some of the match ups.
STRAKA VS LUUKKO
I praised Luukko yesterday for becoming a strong defensive player. Today he was matched up against one of the best offensive players in camp. He did quite well. He didn't give Straka many open looks, but he also couldn't keep the puck away from Straka for very long. Whenever Luukko was able to knock the puck off Straka's stick Straka would win the race to the puck. That's a big plus for Straka; he wants the puck. The only way somebody would beat him to the puck is if he got lazy and that's not how he plays.
NOEBELS VS ALT
Noebels was able to pull of a couple of nifty moves early; but this was the Mark Alt show. Noebels is big, strong, and offensively gifted. Those three things come together in Noebels better than they do in anybody else in camp. And Mark Alt dominated him. He was physical when he needed to be physical; he was smart when he needed to be smart.
COUSINS VS WILLCOX
Cousins has great hands, decent speed, and good escape ability. Maybe Willcox, who is 6 inches bigger than Cousins, was just too much for Cousins to handle but Willcox handled him pretty much every time they squared off. Willcox has become a strong defensive defenseman. He went from being lanky last camp to beefy at this camp. His combination of physicality and smarts reminds me a lot of Nicklas Grossmann. He may not get to the league as fast (Grossmann was a regular NHLer when he was 22/23) but I think he can be just as effective.
HARPER VS HAGG
This was the best battle between two players in this drill. One time Hagg would dominate and Harper wouldn't be able to get a shot off. Sometimes Harper's aggressiveness would be too much for Hagg to handle. This wasn't a battle between a 2nd round pick and a camp invitee, this was a battle between two very talent players imposing their will on one another. Both were very impressive.
LAUGHTON VS MORIN
It should have been the clash of the titans. Two first round picks going toe to toe. It wasn't. This was Scott Laughton taking Samuel Morin to school. Laughton's speed and escapablity would usually be too much to handle, but Laughton didn't rely on his strengths, he went right for Morin's strengths. He initiated contract, meaning he went right into Morin's strength and in the range of Morin's reach. He went right at what Morin does best and he beat him at it.
Samuel Morin was primed to have a great day in camp. In early drills Morin was playing well. He scored glove side three times (twice going short side on Penn State Goalie Matt Skoff, once going long side on 6th round pick Merrick Madsen). Then things started going down hill. Morin began fumbling the puck and missing guys on passes while still going through offensive drills. But when it turned to defensive drills is when things went bad. On the one on one fast break drill he retreated far too fast allowing most players to get shots of unencumbered. One time Stephen Harper came down the wing, initiated contact, and then blew right by Morin and tucked by the goalie far side. Morin went against Harper again, this time Morin was more aggressive and forced him into the corner. In the two on one drill Morin again retreated to fast allowing the two forwards to pass around him like a pylon. One time through the two on one drill Morin looked dominant, but as he was skating the puck out of the zone he was caught by (guess who) Stephen Harper, who stripped him of the puck. Morin then laid out to block a pass to Harper's partner (Andrew Johnston, I believe) and slid out of the zone allowing the two players to go back and forth a couple times before Morin got back in the zone.
Luckily for Morin, the things he did bad today can be easily fixed. One problem is that Morin might not be fixing those things until he gets to the Phantoms. Morin has had the same coach, Serge Beausoleil, for both his seasons at Rimouski. If Beausoleil hasn't fixed this yet he probably isn't going to while Morin is still in junior. I wish Morin could jump straight to the AHL. He's not ready for the NHL, not by a long shot, but he could learn and grow so much by playing in the AHL. Players like Morin can only learn so much by pushing around 16 year olds and undersized 20 year olds in the QMJHL. He needs to play against men as soon as possible. That's why you see a handful of great defensive defensemen coming out of Europe at a younger age (Grossmann was 22, Ladislav Smid started his first full season at 20) cause they play and practice against men. Unfortunately, because of a transfer agreement, Morin can't go to the AHL until he is 20.
In goalie news Anthony Stolarz was might impressive today. He even showed off a little bit of his prowess playing the puck. Stolarz has easily been the best goalie in camp so far, which is impressive considering Ryan McKay was dominant in the NCAA as a 20 year old freshman. Merrick Madsen had another impressive day; seeing a higher caliber of shots from guys like Laughton, Harper, and Taylor Leier (yesterday he only played against defensemen).
Trial on the Isle tomorrow and the Flyers prospects are back on the ice Thursday.
Here are my thoughts on the Flyers at Prospect Camp from Monday
Tuesday, July 9, 2013
Monday, July 8, 2013
Flyers Prospects Development Camp Recap: Monday
Though the Flyers started Player Development Camp Sunday night, I wasn't able to get out to get my first in-person look until Monday morning. There were quite a few players that jumped out at me in that first day.
2011 DRAFT CLASS
Only two players from the 2011 Draft Class were brought into camp this year. Nick Cousins and Marcel Noebels. This is Nick Cousins' third time being at prospect camp. I've seen him at least once every time he's been to camp and I've noticed one thing. Nick Cousins is not a training camp player. In his first camp Cousins was so snake bitten he couldn't have kept control of the puck if his stick was covered in Stickum, at least when I saw him. He went out that next season and finished 8th in the OHL in scoring on a bad team. Last year he wasn't overly impressive and followed that camp up by finishing 4th Overall in OHL scoring (likely would have finished 1st if he wasn't suspended for four games towards the end of the season). Today he wasn't bad but he didn't jump out as much as other players. Some players just don't play well in camp. There is not doubt that Cousins has tons of talent and brings a lot of intangibles (he plays a pesky style similar to Brad Marchand) that simply don't show up in camp.
Marcel Noebels is making his first appearance at Flyers prospect camp after getting drafted two years ago. Noebels has always been a strong defensive player and be a great utility player; being able to play Left, Right, and Center. He's developed a bit of a goal scoring touch with the Phantoms and he showed it off a bit in camp. Twice in a drill he was able to cut across the front of the net and back hand the puck above the goalies into the top of the net. It's not an easy shot to make and he made it twice while taking some soft pressure from Flyers coaches.
2012 DRAFT CLASS
Almost every member of the 2012 Draft Class was at prospect camp, the exception being Valeri Vasiliev who is training with his KHL club Spartak in Russia. Some of the 2012ers have made big jumps from last year.
Anthony Stolarz might have made the biggest jump from one year to the next. Stolarz came into last years camp as a big, raw prospect. This year he is much more refined and much stronger positionally. He seems to have a much better idea as how to use his size to his advantage. One of the biggest obstacles in Stolarz development is how well he handles adversity. He was pulled out of both the OHL Championship and Memorial Cup for back up Jake Patterson. Patterson will still be with London next season and Stolarz will like have to fight to get his spot back. But if he continues to develop at the rate he has he will regain his starting spot. Stolarz will be on minor hockey's brightest stages next season as he will like be on the US World Junior Team as well as playing in the Memorial Cup again (London is hosting, so they automatically qualify).
Shayne Gostisbehere has also taken a big step forward. We've been able to follow his development a little closer than most Flyers prospects. Playing with the Gold Medal winning US World Junior team and a strong Union College team he's been on national television quite a few times. Ghost comes in as one of the bigger names in camp and has preformed well in his first day. He stood out offensively amongst his fellow defensemen. His point shot has only gotten stronger and is likely the best in the Flyers organization right now.
Reece Willcox also stood out at me. Willcox was drafted in the fifth round last year and spent this past season at Cornell. Willcox was drafted as a defensive defenseman and he looks to be developing into just that. He looks much beefier than last year, and a lot bigger than the 194lbs he is listed at. There were not many drills that highlighted defensive attributes but when there were Willcox's ability to push other players (all of them big strong defensemen in their own right) was high lighted.
Because of how camp is set up its not easy to get a good look at all players. I barely got a glimpse at other 2012ers Taylor Leier and Fredrik Larsson. I hope to get a better look at them later in the week. I also only got to see Scott Laughton run a few drills. A couple things jumped out at me. First was his fluid skating. His skating never stood out to me before but his crisp, clean, foot movement jumped out at me. Second, he is definitely bigger than he was last year. He is noticeably bigger than he was in January when he spent time with the Flyers. During the Flyers pre-season camp in January Laughton was pushed around, not just by the Flyers big defenseman, but by Ruslan Fedotenko who Laughton was often matched up against. I don't think he will be getting pushed around like that again.
2013 DRAFT CLASS
Every member of the Flyers 2012 draft class was there. I mentioned how I don't think Samuel Morin well develop into a strong NHLer, but I don't think it is fair to judge him at this camp. Most of the drills today were offense oriented. Shooting, passing, skating, things Morin doesn't do well, but also not what he was drafted to do. He did do well in the one more defensive oriented drill where he often squared off against Robert Hagg.
Robert Hagg showed some glimpses of his great offensive potential. It has been said of Hagg that he doesn't do anything bad, but doesn't do any one thing great. That probably kept him out of the first round but will likely keep him in the NHL for many years. He still has time to develop stand out skill, but he may not make many jaws drop in camp.
Merrick Madsen, a goalie who the Flyers took in the 6th Round, really jumped out at me. He already uses his size to his advantage, but he uses it differently then somebody like Stolarz. Stolarz, like a lot of other big goalies, has a taller and tighter stance. He uses his height to intimidate players while relying on his positioning to make saves. Madsen is much different. He has a shorter, wider stance that covers more area side to side. His big 6'4 frame allows him to cover a lot of space and his athletic ability allows him to close up his holes and cover a lot of area. He reminds me a big of Columbus-Era Sergei Bobrovsky; plenty athletic, but using his big frame to take up a lot of space. I've only seen him once, but so far he looks pretty good.
I was especially interested in seeing Terrance Amorosa since, apparently, so few people have seen him (we wasn't even ranked by NHL Central Scouting). He has some very good offensive abilities, but he is not always consistent. One shot may be a rocket, his next may be a flutterer. He seemed to take his misfires hard, looking towards the ceiling when a couple of his shots drifted softly into the goalies logo, so he knows there is still work to be done. But he does have a fair bit of talent and you can see why the team would want to take a flyer on the under scouted player. Hopefully he can develop more an the University of New Hampshire next season.
David Drake reminded me a lot of Samuel Morin (which is great for Drake, but pretty bad for Morin). He doesn't have a strong shot but he can move the puck pretty well. He is really lean but that didn't stop him from pushing around other players that were much heavier than he is. He is headed to the hockey factory known as the University of North Dakota in the fall and I can't wait to see how he develops there.
OTHER PLAYERS
There were other players who have come to the Flyers in various ways that were very impressive.
Petr Straka was probably the most impressive player I saw. I knew Straka liked to shoot, he lead the QMJHL playoffs in shots and shots per game, and finished in the top 5 in the Q in shots per game. But I didn't know how he could shoot. Wow. This guy's shot is on another level. Very quick and very accurate. I was there at prospect camp to see guys like Brayden Schenn, Sean Couturier, and Matt Read shoot and none of them shot consistently as well as Straka. Every time he got a second to shoot it was off the bottom of the cross bar and into the net. When he missed, which wasn't often, he was missing by inches. He doesn't appear to have excellent hands, but if he gets a second to shoot he's shooting to score. The expectations for Straka, a former 2nd round pick, should be through the roof, but luckily for him he is flying a bit under the radar. He will be a big shot to the team and the league whenever he makes it into the line up.
Matt Konan stood out to me last year in camp. He was shooting better than everybody on the ice with the exception of Scott Laughton and was fighting through bigger players. He was standing out again in the same ways this camp. The Flyers run a drill that requires two players to stand players to stand face to face at about the hash marks in front of the goal. A puck is put behind the player closest to the net and player in front of him has to fight through him and get a shot off. Konan dominated in this drill last year and was back to dominating the drill this year. Now he is a force on both the offensive and defensive sides of the drill.
Kyle Flannigan looked good, but since his real talent is in playmaking I don't know if we will get a firm grasp of his abilities at camp. Nick Luukko, son of Comcast President and COO Peter Luukko, plays a lot like Reece Willcox. Big, strong, and defensively sound. Luukko played in all situations with Vermont last season. He may be slow developing, but he may be developing into a solid NHLer.
Fun time at Flyers Player Development Camp today, I can't wait to head back tomorrow!
2011 DRAFT CLASS
Only two players from the 2011 Draft Class were brought into camp this year. Nick Cousins and Marcel Noebels. This is Nick Cousins' third time being at prospect camp. I've seen him at least once every time he's been to camp and I've noticed one thing. Nick Cousins is not a training camp player. In his first camp Cousins was so snake bitten he couldn't have kept control of the puck if his stick was covered in Stickum, at least when I saw him. He went out that next season and finished 8th in the OHL in scoring on a bad team. Last year he wasn't overly impressive and followed that camp up by finishing 4th Overall in OHL scoring (likely would have finished 1st if he wasn't suspended for four games towards the end of the season). Today he wasn't bad but he didn't jump out as much as other players. Some players just don't play well in camp. There is not doubt that Cousins has tons of talent and brings a lot of intangibles (he plays a pesky style similar to Brad Marchand) that simply don't show up in camp.
Marcel Noebels is making his first appearance at Flyers prospect camp after getting drafted two years ago. Noebels has always been a strong defensive player and be a great utility player; being able to play Left, Right, and Center. He's developed a bit of a goal scoring touch with the Phantoms and he showed it off a bit in camp. Twice in a drill he was able to cut across the front of the net and back hand the puck above the goalies into the top of the net. It's not an easy shot to make and he made it twice while taking some soft pressure from Flyers coaches.
2012 DRAFT CLASS
Almost every member of the 2012 Draft Class was at prospect camp, the exception being Valeri Vasiliev who is training with his KHL club Spartak in Russia. Some of the 2012ers have made big jumps from last year.
Anthony Stolarz might have made the biggest jump from one year to the next. Stolarz came into last years camp as a big, raw prospect. This year he is much more refined and much stronger positionally. He seems to have a much better idea as how to use his size to his advantage. One of the biggest obstacles in Stolarz development is how well he handles adversity. He was pulled out of both the OHL Championship and Memorial Cup for back up Jake Patterson. Patterson will still be with London next season and Stolarz will like have to fight to get his spot back. But if he continues to develop at the rate he has he will regain his starting spot. Stolarz will be on minor hockey's brightest stages next season as he will like be on the US World Junior Team as well as playing in the Memorial Cup again (London is hosting, so they automatically qualify).
Shayne Gostisbehere has also taken a big step forward. We've been able to follow his development a little closer than most Flyers prospects. Playing with the Gold Medal winning US World Junior team and a strong Union College team he's been on national television quite a few times. Ghost comes in as one of the bigger names in camp and has preformed well in his first day. He stood out offensively amongst his fellow defensemen. His point shot has only gotten stronger and is likely the best in the Flyers organization right now.
Reece Willcox also stood out at me. Willcox was drafted in the fifth round last year and spent this past season at Cornell. Willcox was drafted as a defensive defenseman and he looks to be developing into just that. He looks much beefier than last year, and a lot bigger than the 194lbs he is listed at. There were not many drills that highlighted defensive attributes but when there were Willcox's ability to push other players (all of them big strong defensemen in their own right) was high lighted.
Because of how camp is set up its not easy to get a good look at all players. I barely got a glimpse at other 2012ers Taylor Leier and Fredrik Larsson. I hope to get a better look at them later in the week. I also only got to see Scott Laughton run a few drills. A couple things jumped out at me. First was his fluid skating. His skating never stood out to me before but his crisp, clean, foot movement jumped out at me. Second, he is definitely bigger than he was last year. He is noticeably bigger than he was in January when he spent time with the Flyers. During the Flyers pre-season camp in January Laughton was pushed around, not just by the Flyers big defenseman, but by Ruslan Fedotenko who Laughton was often matched up against. I don't think he will be getting pushed around like that again.
2013 DRAFT CLASS
Every member of the Flyers 2012 draft class was there. I mentioned how I don't think Samuel Morin well develop into a strong NHLer, but I don't think it is fair to judge him at this camp. Most of the drills today were offense oriented. Shooting, passing, skating, things Morin doesn't do well, but also not what he was drafted to do. He did do well in the one more defensive oriented drill where he often squared off against Robert Hagg.
Robert Hagg showed some glimpses of his great offensive potential. It has been said of Hagg that he doesn't do anything bad, but doesn't do any one thing great. That probably kept him out of the first round but will likely keep him in the NHL for many years. He still has time to develop stand out skill, but he may not make many jaws drop in camp.
Merrick Madsen, a goalie who the Flyers took in the 6th Round, really jumped out at me. He already uses his size to his advantage, but he uses it differently then somebody like Stolarz. Stolarz, like a lot of other big goalies, has a taller and tighter stance. He uses his height to intimidate players while relying on his positioning to make saves. Madsen is much different. He has a shorter, wider stance that covers more area side to side. His big 6'4 frame allows him to cover a lot of space and his athletic ability allows him to close up his holes and cover a lot of area. He reminds me a big of Columbus-Era Sergei Bobrovsky; plenty athletic, but using his big frame to take up a lot of space. I've only seen him once, but so far he looks pretty good.
I was especially interested in seeing Terrance Amorosa since, apparently, so few people have seen him (we wasn't even ranked by NHL Central Scouting). He has some very good offensive abilities, but he is not always consistent. One shot may be a rocket, his next may be a flutterer. He seemed to take his misfires hard, looking towards the ceiling when a couple of his shots drifted softly into the goalies logo, so he knows there is still work to be done. But he does have a fair bit of talent and you can see why the team would want to take a flyer on the under scouted player. Hopefully he can develop more an the University of New Hampshire next season.
David Drake reminded me a lot of Samuel Morin (which is great for Drake, but pretty bad for Morin). He doesn't have a strong shot but he can move the puck pretty well. He is really lean but that didn't stop him from pushing around other players that were much heavier than he is. He is headed to the hockey factory known as the University of North Dakota in the fall and I can't wait to see how he develops there.
OTHER PLAYERS
There were other players who have come to the Flyers in various ways that were very impressive.
Petr Straka was probably the most impressive player I saw. I knew Straka liked to shoot, he lead the QMJHL playoffs in shots and shots per game, and finished in the top 5 in the Q in shots per game. But I didn't know how he could shoot. Wow. This guy's shot is on another level. Very quick and very accurate. I was there at prospect camp to see guys like Brayden Schenn, Sean Couturier, and Matt Read shoot and none of them shot consistently as well as Straka. Every time he got a second to shoot it was off the bottom of the cross bar and into the net. When he missed, which wasn't often, he was missing by inches. He doesn't appear to have excellent hands, but if he gets a second to shoot he's shooting to score. The expectations for Straka, a former 2nd round pick, should be through the roof, but luckily for him he is flying a bit under the radar. He will be a big shot to the team and the league whenever he makes it into the line up.
Matt Konan stood out to me last year in camp. He was shooting better than everybody on the ice with the exception of Scott Laughton and was fighting through bigger players. He was standing out again in the same ways this camp. The Flyers run a drill that requires two players to stand players to stand face to face at about the hash marks in front of the goal. A puck is put behind the player closest to the net and player in front of him has to fight through him and get a shot off. Konan dominated in this drill last year and was back to dominating the drill this year. Now he is a force on both the offensive and defensive sides of the drill.
Kyle Flannigan looked good, but since his real talent is in playmaking I don't know if we will get a firm grasp of his abilities at camp. Nick Luukko, son of Comcast President and COO Peter Luukko, plays a lot like Reece Willcox. Big, strong, and defensively sound. Luukko played in all situations with Vermont last season. He may be slow developing, but he may be developing into a solid NHLer.
Fun time at Flyers Player Development Camp today, I can't wait to head back tomorrow!
Monday, July 1, 2013
Flyers 2013 Draft Re-Cap
A day later and the dust is finally settling from the draft. There was a lot of talk about how they Flyers could move up but it turned out it wasn't to be. At the end of the day they had drafted four defensemen, one winger, and one goalie. Let's take a quick look at who they drafted.
11th Overall - Samuel Morin - Rimouski Oceanic (QMJHL) - Defense - 6'6, 203 lbs
41st Overall - Robert Hagg - MODO (Sweden) - Defense - 6'2 203 lbs
72st Overall - Tyrell Goulbourne - Regina Pats (WHL) - Left Wing - 5'10, 190 lbs
132nd Overall - Terrance Amorosa - Holderness School (High School - New Hampshire) - Defense - 6'2, 190 lbs
162nd Overall - Merrick Madsen - Proctor Academy (High School - New Hampshire) - Goalie - 6'4, 176 lbs
192nd Overall - David Drake - De Moines Buckaneers (USHL) - Defense - 6'4, 170 lbs
So let's start breaking these guys down.
Morin is a big, physical defenseman. I think a lot of people look at that and see the next great shut down defenseman. I think some foolish people look at him and see the next Chris Pronger. Drafting defenseman is always risky since great play in juniors doesn't translate to great play in the pros as easily for defenseman as it does for forwards. But the Morin pick is especially concerning. Here is an article (keep in the blogspot family, yo!) that shows that defenseman who don't score .4 points per game very rarely make it into the NHL. Morin, with 16 points in 46 games, averaged around .348 points per game. "But Morin is a defensive defenseman, he shouldn't be judged by his offensive production". I've heard this argument a number of times since we've drafted Morin less than 24 hours ago. What the article is saying is that if a player lacks the skill to put up points against the lesser quality of competition in junior he doesn't have the skill to make it to the NHL. .4 points per game isn't a really high amount. Michal Rozsival and Carl Gunnarsson averaged more than that this past NHL season. Luke Schenn averaged more than .4 PPG in his draft eligible year and he has always be considered a shut down defenseman. Per Hockey's Future, Morin has a great first pass out of the zone, a booming slap shot, and a powerful stride. If he has all those assets where are the points? Rimouski was a good team; they finished 4th in the league and 7th in the league in goals for. Morin got a lot of minutes all season. Where are his points? I'm not saying he should be a point per game player but shouldn't he be scoring at the same clip that Luke Schenn did? Especialy considering that Schenn was playing on a much weaker offensive team.
I like to keep this blog positive. But I fear the Flyers have drafted a dud. With other strong prospects like Ryan Pulock, Alex Wennberg, and Joshua Morrissey also available I think the Flyers will be kicking themselves on this one.
As much as I dislike the Flyers first pick I absolutely love their second pick. Robert Hagg has been on the Flyers radar since the World Juniors. He played most of the season in the top league in Sweden as a teenager. He's a tremendous two way defenseman who has good speed and can be quite a physical player. He was supposed to go in the mid to late first round but fell all the way to the 41st pick overall. He is a great two way defenseman with out any deficiencies. He reminds me of a bigger more physical version of Jonas Brodin, who was taken 11th overall by the Wild in 2011 and finished 4th in Calder voting this past season. He will most likely play in Sweden next season but could be ready to make the jump to the NHL as early as 2014-15.
Now we get to the Flyers most confusing pick from this years draft: Tyrell Goulbourne. Goulbourne is an undersized fighter. Think Zac Rinaldo. The thing is, Goulbourne wasn't picked in the late rounds where Zac Rinaldo and other fighters are drafted. No, he was taken in the 3rd round with the 71st Overall pick. He wasn't ranked in the top 150 prospects on any lists, a ranking consistent with his fighter status. Why did the Flyers take him so high up? Well, without a pick in the fourth round maybe they were afraid Goulbourne wouldn't make it to the fifth round for some reason. It's more than the fact they took a fighter so high, its the amount of talent they left on the board. This third round is as strong as the second round in the last few drafts. Guys like Mattias Janmark Nylen, Anton Slepyshev, Taylor Cammarata, Peter Cehlarik, Jimmy Lodge, John Hayden, Pavel Buchnevich, Anthony Duclair, Keaton Thompson, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Bogdan Yakimov, and even Sven Andrighetto. There is star quality there. All of those guys have a good chance at becoming serviceable NHLers. And they passed on them for a fighter that could be there in the later rounds. It's especially infuriating when you think that in the last two seasons the Flyers have had the steal of the 3rd round. Nick Cousins in 2011 and Shayne Gostisbehere in 2012. Just think if they got somebody like Peter Cehlarik, who averaged more points per game in the top Swedish league this season than Matt Duchene (who played there during the Lockout). Insane.
Without a pick in the 4th round the Flyers were left with 3 picks in the later rounds. The Flyers in recent years have used a lot of their late round picks on players who were bound for the NCAA. This is a smart strategy. The later rounds are gambles and if you can get more time to try and figure out if a player will turn into an NHL play all the better. Players going to the NCAA don't have to be signed for three years after they are drafted, a year more than players coming out of the CHL or most countries in Europe. A player going to a good school has a greater chance to develop because they will be thrown into a much more difficult environment. They will be exposed to better coaches, better training, better competition, and better players to play with while similar CHL players will continue at a level they are already at and playing against lesser and lesser competition as the better players age out or move on to the NHL.
The first NCAA bound player the Flyers drafted was Terrance Amorosa who was under the radar to say the least. He wasn't even ranked by NHL central scouting (who list 245 North American skaters alone) and until he was drafted he didn't have an Elite Prospects or Hockey DB profile. He put up pretty good numbers playing in high school and will be heading to the University of New Hampshire in the fall. There he will have to battle for minutes against some pretty tough competition, including JVR's brother Trevor (or TVR) who finished 2nd in scoring amongst all NCAA defensemen last year, 6'6 senior Eric Knodel, and 3rd round draft pick Brett Pesce.
After Amorosa the Flyers went for goaltender Merrick Madsen. Madsen has good size and is moving into one of the best conferences in college hockey, the ECAC. Already home to Flyers prospects Shayne Gostisbehere (Union), Reece Wilcox (Cornell), and Petr Placek who will be Madsen's teammate at Harvard. The league is also home to Quinnipiac and Yale who met in the NCAA final last season. Two of the best NCAA goalies in the past two seasons have come out of the ECAC, Troy Grosenick (Union) and Eric Hartzell (Quinnipiac). It will be interesting to see how he develops. It is not uncommon for goalies, even star goalies, to emerge from the late rounds of the draft.
(A quick aside, I don't know who the Flyers scout covering high school hockey in New Hampshire is, but look for him to move up in the organization in the near future. He clearly has Holmgren's ear considering they took two pretty off the board picks from the same area.)
The Flyers last pick in the draft is David Drake. The tall lanky defenseman will be headed to the University of North Dakota in the fall. UND is already home to Flyers pick Michael Parks who ended his 2011-12 freshman season with a promising 18 points in his final 22 games but spent this season marred by injury. North Dakota is a professional hockey factory, turning out great players at the same pace as schools like Boston College. Drake will need to put on weight but if he can turn into something in at UND he could be a real steal.
The big issue I had with this draft was there insistence on drafting the "best Flyer available" and not the "best player available". They consistently passed over skilled players to take tough, gritty, physical players who will at best be depth forwards in the NHL. This outdated idea of who the Flyers are/were has left the Flyers walking away from the best draft in a decade with one great prospect, a bust in the making, an undersized goon, and a handful of gambles.
11th Overall - Samuel Morin - Rimouski Oceanic (QMJHL) - Defense - 6'6, 203 lbs
41st Overall - Robert Hagg - MODO (Sweden) - Defense - 6'2 203 lbs
72st Overall - Tyrell Goulbourne - Regina Pats (WHL) - Left Wing - 5'10, 190 lbs
132nd Overall - Terrance Amorosa - Holderness School (High School - New Hampshire) - Defense - 6'2, 190 lbs
162nd Overall - Merrick Madsen - Proctor Academy (High School - New Hampshire) - Goalie - 6'4, 176 lbs
192nd Overall - David Drake - De Moines Buckaneers (USHL) - Defense - 6'4, 170 lbs
So let's start breaking these guys down.
Morin is a big, physical defenseman. I think a lot of people look at that and see the next great shut down defenseman. I think some foolish people look at him and see the next Chris Pronger. Drafting defenseman is always risky since great play in juniors doesn't translate to great play in the pros as easily for defenseman as it does for forwards. But the Morin pick is especially concerning. Here is an article (keep in the blogspot family, yo!) that shows that defenseman who don't score .4 points per game very rarely make it into the NHL. Morin, with 16 points in 46 games, averaged around .348 points per game. "But Morin is a defensive defenseman, he shouldn't be judged by his offensive production". I've heard this argument a number of times since we've drafted Morin less than 24 hours ago. What the article is saying is that if a player lacks the skill to put up points against the lesser quality of competition in junior he doesn't have the skill to make it to the NHL. .4 points per game isn't a really high amount. Michal Rozsival and Carl Gunnarsson averaged more than that this past NHL season. Luke Schenn averaged more than .4 PPG in his draft eligible year and he has always be considered a shut down defenseman. Per Hockey's Future, Morin has a great first pass out of the zone, a booming slap shot, and a powerful stride. If he has all those assets where are the points? Rimouski was a good team; they finished 4th in the league and 7th in the league in goals for. Morin got a lot of minutes all season. Where are his points? I'm not saying he should be a point per game player but shouldn't he be scoring at the same clip that Luke Schenn did? Especialy considering that Schenn was playing on a much weaker offensive team.
I like to keep this blog positive. But I fear the Flyers have drafted a dud. With other strong prospects like Ryan Pulock, Alex Wennberg, and Joshua Morrissey also available I think the Flyers will be kicking themselves on this one.
As much as I dislike the Flyers first pick I absolutely love their second pick. Robert Hagg has been on the Flyers radar since the World Juniors. He played most of the season in the top league in Sweden as a teenager. He's a tremendous two way defenseman who has good speed and can be quite a physical player. He was supposed to go in the mid to late first round but fell all the way to the 41st pick overall. He is a great two way defenseman with out any deficiencies. He reminds me of a bigger more physical version of Jonas Brodin, who was taken 11th overall by the Wild in 2011 and finished 4th in Calder voting this past season. He will most likely play in Sweden next season but could be ready to make the jump to the NHL as early as 2014-15.
Now we get to the Flyers most confusing pick from this years draft: Tyrell Goulbourne. Goulbourne is an undersized fighter. Think Zac Rinaldo. The thing is, Goulbourne wasn't picked in the late rounds where Zac Rinaldo and other fighters are drafted. No, he was taken in the 3rd round with the 71st Overall pick. He wasn't ranked in the top 150 prospects on any lists, a ranking consistent with his fighter status. Why did the Flyers take him so high up? Well, without a pick in the fourth round maybe they were afraid Goulbourne wouldn't make it to the fifth round for some reason. It's more than the fact they took a fighter so high, its the amount of talent they left on the board. This third round is as strong as the second round in the last few drafts. Guys like Mattias Janmark Nylen, Anton Slepyshev, Taylor Cammarata, Peter Cehlarik, Jimmy Lodge, John Hayden, Pavel Buchnevich, Anthony Duclair, Keaton Thompson, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Bogdan Yakimov, and even Sven Andrighetto. There is star quality there. All of those guys have a good chance at becoming serviceable NHLers. And they passed on them for a fighter that could be there in the later rounds. It's especially infuriating when you think that in the last two seasons the Flyers have had the steal of the 3rd round. Nick Cousins in 2011 and Shayne Gostisbehere in 2012. Just think if they got somebody like Peter Cehlarik, who averaged more points per game in the top Swedish league this season than Matt Duchene (who played there during the Lockout). Insane.
Without a pick in the 4th round the Flyers were left with 3 picks in the later rounds. The Flyers in recent years have used a lot of their late round picks on players who were bound for the NCAA. This is a smart strategy. The later rounds are gambles and if you can get more time to try and figure out if a player will turn into an NHL play all the better. Players going to the NCAA don't have to be signed for three years after they are drafted, a year more than players coming out of the CHL or most countries in Europe. A player going to a good school has a greater chance to develop because they will be thrown into a much more difficult environment. They will be exposed to better coaches, better training, better competition, and better players to play with while similar CHL players will continue at a level they are already at and playing against lesser and lesser competition as the better players age out or move on to the NHL.
The first NCAA bound player the Flyers drafted was Terrance Amorosa who was under the radar to say the least. He wasn't even ranked by NHL central scouting (who list 245 North American skaters alone) and until he was drafted he didn't have an Elite Prospects or Hockey DB profile. He put up pretty good numbers playing in high school and will be heading to the University of New Hampshire in the fall. There he will have to battle for minutes against some pretty tough competition, including JVR's brother Trevor (or TVR) who finished 2nd in scoring amongst all NCAA defensemen last year, 6'6 senior Eric Knodel, and 3rd round draft pick Brett Pesce.
After Amorosa the Flyers went for goaltender Merrick Madsen. Madsen has good size and is moving into one of the best conferences in college hockey, the ECAC. Already home to Flyers prospects Shayne Gostisbehere (Union), Reece Wilcox (Cornell), and Petr Placek who will be Madsen's teammate at Harvard. The league is also home to Quinnipiac and Yale who met in the NCAA final last season. Two of the best NCAA goalies in the past two seasons have come out of the ECAC, Troy Grosenick (Union) and Eric Hartzell (Quinnipiac). It will be interesting to see how he develops. It is not uncommon for goalies, even star goalies, to emerge from the late rounds of the draft.
(A quick aside, I don't know who the Flyers scout covering high school hockey in New Hampshire is, but look for him to move up in the organization in the near future. He clearly has Holmgren's ear considering they took two pretty off the board picks from the same area.)
The Flyers last pick in the draft is David Drake. The tall lanky defenseman will be headed to the University of North Dakota in the fall. UND is already home to Flyers pick Michael Parks who ended his 2011-12 freshman season with a promising 18 points in his final 22 games but spent this season marred by injury. North Dakota is a professional hockey factory, turning out great players at the same pace as schools like Boston College. Drake will need to put on weight but if he can turn into something in at UND he could be a real steal.
The big issue I had with this draft was there insistence on drafting the "best Flyer available" and not the "best player available". They consistently passed over skilled players to take tough, gritty, physical players who will at best be depth forwards in the NHL. This outdated idea of who the Flyers are/were has left the Flyers walking away from the best draft in a decade with one great prospect, a bust in the making, an undersized goon, and a handful of gambles.
Friday, May 31, 2013
Flyers sign D Maxim Lamarche and F Michael Raffl. What can we expect from them?
The Flyers had a big day yesterday bringing a couple of decent undrafted prospects in defenseman Maxim Lamarche and winger Michael Raffl. Lamarche is coming from the Baie-Comeau Drakkar of the QMJHL where he played with Petr Straka, another of the Flyers free agent prospect signings. Raffl, an Austrian, was playing in Sweden with Leksands.
Lamarche had a bit of a break out season this year with Baie-Comeau. After putting up 28 points and being a -40 in his draft eligible year two seasons ago; Lamarche is coming off a monster year where he scored 43 points in 55 games and was a whopping +31. Along with his offensive production Lamarche, who is 6'2 192 lbs, is pretty physical and is pretty willing to drop the gloves and throw hands. This season he helped Baie-Comeau to a second place finish in the QMJHL losing to Memorial Cup Champions Halifax Mooseheads. The Flyers have been good at snagging late developing junior players. Last year they signed Matt Konan after his break out year in the WHL. We all know that it takes defensemen more time to develop. Maybe guys like Lamarche and Konan, who weren't sought after as 17 and 18 year olds, needed a little more time to develop in good or even great prospects. Lamarche is at least a season or two away from getting his shot at the NHL. And with the Phantoms' defense loaded with young talent it will be interesting to see how long it takes for him to find his place on the team. If he can develop like fellow undrafted junior defensemen Matt Konan and Brandon Manning we could be seeing Lamarche in a Flyers jersey a little bit down the road.
A bit closer to the NHL is Michael Raffl. The 24 year old Raffl has spent his entire career in Europe, first playing in his native Austria before making the jump to Leksands in Sweden's second league the Allsvenskan. Raffl helped Leksands to the Allsvenskan Championship as the teams leading scorer. Without the help of any lockout players (though the team did have top prospects Filip Forsberg and Jacob de la Rose) Raffl scored 24 goals and 46 points in 49 games. Raffl caught the eye of the Flyers and the rest of the NHL at the World Championships. While Raffl didn't put up great numbers (3 points in 7 games) he played well enough to get multiple NHL teams to go after him. The Flyers have dabbled in players coming out of Europe in their mid twenties before. Jiri Dopita, while he is considered a disappointment, but up pretty good numbers (27 points in 52 games) with the Flyers. Ville Leino was an MVP in Finland's SM-liiga before he was brought over by Detroit. As long as team teams expectations for Raffl aren't short term or too unrealistic like they were with Dopita he could become a key contributor. It sounds like the Flyers will give Raffl a chance to make team out of training camp. The same opportunity was given to Matt Read, a fellow 24 year old undrafted free agent, a couple of seasons ago. While Raffl may never be Matt Read, but if he works hard he could have a spot on the 3rd or 4th line this up coming season.
After what has been a slightly disappointing offseason for the Flyers (in terms of signing undrafted free agents) these two signing are a major coup for the team.
A bit of a post script, the Lamarche signing could be a signal as to who the Flyers will draft with the 11th Overall pick in the upcoming draft. While there is still a chance players like Valeri Nichushkin, Elias Lindholm, and Rasmus Ristolainen may still be on the board when it comes time for the Flyers to pick it isn't necessarily likely. One player that likely will be on the board at the 11th pick is winger Valentin Zykov. Zykov played in Baie-Comeau along with Lamarche and Petr Straka. The Flyers clearly think highly of the team and they have a recent history of drafting players from teams where they currently have prospects playing. While there is still a chance one of the big players will fall; if I was a betting man I'd put my money on the Flyers drafting Zykov.
Lamarche had a bit of a break out season this year with Baie-Comeau. After putting up 28 points and being a -40 in his draft eligible year two seasons ago; Lamarche is coming off a monster year where he scored 43 points in 55 games and was a whopping +31. Along with his offensive production Lamarche, who is 6'2 192 lbs, is pretty physical and is pretty willing to drop the gloves and throw hands. This season he helped Baie-Comeau to a second place finish in the QMJHL losing to Memorial Cup Champions Halifax Mooseheads. The Flyers have been good at snagging late developing junior players. Last year they signed Matt Konan after his break out year in the WHL. We all know that it takes defensemen more time to develop. Maybe guys like Lamarche and Konan, who weren't sought after as 17 and 18 year olds, needed a little more time to develop in good or even great prospects. Lamarche is at least a season or two away from getting his shot at the NHL. And with the Phantoms' defense loaded with young talent it will be interesting to see how long it takes for him to find his place on the team. If he can develop like fellow undrafted junior defensemen Matt Konan and Brandon Manning we could be seeing Lamarche in a Flyers jersey a little bit down the road.
A bit closer to the NHL is Michael Raffl. The 24 year old Raffl has spent his entire career in Europe, first playing in his native Austria before making the jump to Leksands in Sweden's second league the Allsvenskan. Raffl helped Leksands to the Allsvenskan Championship as the teams leading scorer. Without the help of any lockout players (though the team did have top prospects Filip Forsberg and Jacob de la Rose) Raffl scored 24 goals and 46 points in 49 games. Raffl caught the eye of the Flyers and the rest of the NHL at the World Championships. While Raffl didn't put up great numbers (3 points in 7 games) he played well enough to get multiple NHL teams to go after him. The Flyers have dabbled in players coming out of Europe in their mid twenties before. Jiri Dopita, while he is considered a disappointment, but up pretty good numbers (27 points in 52 games) with the Flyers. Ville Leino was an MVP in Finland's SM-liiga before he was brought over by Detroit. As long as team teams expectations for Raffl aren't short term or too unrealistic like they were with Dopita he could become a key contributor. It sounds like the Flyers will give Raffl a chance to make team out of training camp. The same opportunity was given to Matt Read, a fellow 24 year old undrafted free agent, a couple of seasons ago. While Raffl may never be Matt Read, but if he works hard he could have a spot on the 3rd or 4th line this up coming season.
After what has been a slightly disappointing offseason for the Flyers (in terms of signing undrafted free agents) these two signing are a major coup for the team.
A bit of a post script, the Lamarche signing could be a signal as to who the Flyers will draft with the 11th Overall pick in the upcoming draft. While there is still a chance players like Valeri Nichushkin, Elias Lindholm, and Rasmus Ristolainen may still be on the board when it comes time for the Flyers to pick it isn't necessarily likely. One player that likely will be on the board at the 11th pick is winger Valentin Zykov. Zykov played in Baie-Comeau along with Lamarche and Petr Straka. The Flyers clearly think highly of the team and they have a recent history of drafting players from teams where they currently have prospects playing. While there is still a chance one of the big players will fall; if I was a betting man I'd put my money on the Flyers drafting Zykov.
Tuesday, May 28, 2013
This is the Draft to Buy in on Russians
The Flyers have kind of made a habit out of not drafting Russians. They have only drafted 3 Russians in the last 10 drafts. As I've mentioned before, that doesn't mean the Flyers are anti-Russian, but that they prefer to draft North Americans which are viewed as safer bets. The league as a whole has shifted away from drafting Russian trained Russians due to the fear that those players wont come over to the NHL. But with this draft class loaded with talent the time is right for the Flyers to turn to Russia from top prospects.
Over the past four drafts there have only been 36 Russians taken. 7 in 2009, 8 in 2010, 9 in 2011, and 12 in 2012. The rise in Russians selected is most likely due to the amount of Russians coming over to the CHL. Of those 36 Russians only 22 were trained in Russia. There hasn't been more than 6 Russian trained Russians selected in any of the last four drafts.
In the last four drafts there have only been 8 teams that have selected more than one Russian. Only 4 have selected multiple Russian trained Russians. St. Louis (who hasn't drafted a Russian since 2010), Florida (who drafted their Russians in the later rounds), Washington (who have only drafted a Russian in 7th Round since 2010), and Tampa Bay (who is the only team that I believe is comfortable and confident in selecting Russian players).
The threat of young Russian players staying in the KHL has been real for the past few seasons. With more and more players going to or staying in Russia and more and more money being pumped into the KHL; teams would be gambling if they drafted a Russian trained player. But as Bob Dylan once said the times they are a-changin'. More young Russians are coming over to the Canadian Junior leagues and even those who spend their junior careers in Russia are leaning more to NHL glory than KHL money. Recently Russia's most prominent hockey ambassador, Vladislav Tretiak (yeah, that Tretiak), said that Russia's humiliating 8-3 loss to the United States at World Championships was due to the team lacking NHL talent; essentially bashing the quality of play in the KHL.
With Russia's recent success at the World Junior level we can see that Russia is brimming with young talent. And as Vladimir Tarasenko showed players who come over from the KHL are usually closer to being NHL ready. Most Europeans are closer to being NHL ready due to the fact that they are playing against grown men at 17 or 18 years old as opposed to North American who are playing against 16-20 year olds. With guys like Valeri Nichushkin, who says he's planning on playing in North America next season, it appears that young Russians will again be flooding into the NHL soon.
But a lot of NHL teams are usually set in their ways. Only one team has drafted multiple Russian trained Russians in a single draft in the last two seasons. Could the Flyers really change their ways and draft multiple Russians? Two or more Russian trained Russians? I think if a team buys in on Russians in this draft they will be pleasantly surprised.
In my post about who the Flyers could draft in the 2nd Round, I mentioned that a few Russians were dark horse candidates. Big center Bogdan Yakimov, winger Pavel Buchnevich, and KHL Champion defenseman Andrei Mironov. Behind them is Anton Slepyshev, a big winger who was the 10th ranked European skater in last year and went completely undrafted due to the fact that he was expected to be a KHL lifer. Now there are rumors that he wants to come over to North America after his KHL contract expires after the 2013-14 season. Then there is defenseman Rushan Rafikov who was one of the Lokomotiv Yaroslavl players who trained in Lancaster earlier this year. Winger Vyacheslav Leschenko who jumped 71 spots between the Midterm and Final rankings on the NHL Central Scouting's list. Towards the end of the draft is one of my favorites is 6'7 230 lbs defenseman Nikita Tryamkin. Ranked as the 123 best European skaker (a spot where players aren't usually drafted) but spent over half the season in the KHL and scored 8 goals and 18 points in the 28 games he played in the Russian junior league. Between Leschenko and Tryamkin there are plenty of talented players that play all sorts of roles.
Would the Flyers select one of these players? Two? Three? What if I told you there is a very good chance the Flyers select a Russian the 1st Round of the draft. The best forward and defenseman that will likely be available at the 11th pick will the Canadian trained Russians (F) Valentin Zykov and (D) Nikita Zadorov. There is even a chance that Valeri Nichushkin could fall all the way to 11th (remember last year Mikhail Grigorenko was supposed to be a top 3 pick and fell all the way to 12)
So would the Flyers draft multiple Russians? I don't know. They have looked more towards Russia recently. They drafted Valeri Vasiliev last season. But there is gold in those Russian hills. If they were to draft a couple of Russian trained players I don't doubt that they would be quality NHLers.
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Over the past four drafts there have only been 36 Russians taken. 7 in 2009, 8 in 2010, 9 in 2011, and 12 in 2012. The rise in Russians selected is most likely due to the amount of Russians coming over to the CHL. Of those 36 Russians only 22 were trained in Russia. There hasn't been more than 6 Russian trained Russians selected in any of the last four drafts.
In the last four drafts there have only been 8 teams that have selected more than one Russian. Only 4 have selected multiple Russian trained Russians. St. Louis (who hasn't drafted a Russian since 2010), Florida (who drafted their Russians in the later rounds), Washington (who have only drafted a Russian in 7th Round since 2010), and Tampa Bay (who is the only team that I believe is comfortable and confident in selecting Russian players).
The threat of young Russian players staying in the KHL has been real for the past few seasons. With more and more players going to or staying in Russia and more and more money being pumped into the KHL; teams would be gambling if they drafted a Russian trained player. But as Bob Dylan once said the times they are a-changin'. More young Russians are coming over to the Canadian Junior leagues and even those who spend their junior careers in Russia are leaning more to NHL glory than KHL money. Recently Russia's most prominent hockey ambassador, Vladislav Tretiak (yeah, that Tretiak), said that Russia's humiliating 8-3 loss to the United States at World Championships was due to the team lacking NHL talent; essentially bashing the quality of play in the KHL.
With Russia's recent success at the World Junior level we can see that Russia is brimming with young talent. And as Vladimir Tarasenko showed players who come over from the KHL are usually closer to being NHL ready. Most Europeans are closer to being NHL ready due to the fact that they are playing against grown men at 17 or 18 years old as opposed to North American who are playing against 16-20 year olds. With guys like Valeri Nichushkin, who says he's planning on playing in North America next season, it appears that young Russians will again be flooding into the NHL soon.
But a lot of NHL teams are usually set in their ways. Only one team has drafted multiple Russian trained Russians in a single draft in the last two seasons. Could the Flyers really change their ways and draft multiple Russians? Two or more Russian trained Russians? I think if a team buys in on Russians in this draft they will be pleasantly surprised.
In my post about who the Flyers could draft in the 2nd Round, I mentioned that a few Russians were dark horse candidates. Big center Bogdan Yakimov, winger Pavel Buchnevich, and KHL Champion defenseman Andrei Mironov. Behind them is Anton Slepyshev, a big winger who was the 10th ranked European skater in last year and went completely undrafted due to the fact that he was expected to be a KHL lifer. Now there are rumors that he wants to come over to North America after his KHL contract expires after the 2013-14 season. Then there is defenseman Rushan Rafikov who was one of the Lokomotiv Yaroslavl players who trained in Lancaster earlier this year. Winger Vyacheslav Leschenko who jumped 71 spots between the Midterm and Final rankings on the NHL Central Scouting's list. Towards the end of the draft is one of my favorites is 6'7 230 lbs defenseman Nikita Tryamkin. Ranked as the 123 best European skaker (a spot where players aren't usually drafted) but spent over half the season in the KHL and scored 8 goals and 18 points in the 28 games he played in the Russian junior league. Between Leschenko and Tryamkin there are plenty of talented players that play all sorts of roles.
Would the Flyers select one of these players? Two? Three? What if I told you there is a very good chance the Flyers select a Russian the 1st Round of the draft. The best forward and defenseman that will likely be available at the 11th pick will the Canadian trained Russians (F) Valentin Zykov and (D) Nikita Zadorov. There is even a chance that Valeri Nichushkin could fall all the way to 11th (remember last year Mikhail Grigorenko was supposed to be a top 3 pick and fell all the way to 12)
So would the Flyers draft multiple Russians? I don't know. They have looked more towards Russia recently. They drafted Valeri Vasiliev last season. But there is gold in those Russian hills. If they were to draft a couple of Russian trained players I don't doubt that they would be quality NHLers.
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Thursday, May 16, 2013
Who Might the Flyers take in the 2nd Round?
We all have an idea of who the Flyers should take in the first round. And while I have my own ideas of who they might take with the 11th Overall pick I wanted to take a look at who they might take with the 41st Overall pick.
I mentioned in my article yesterday that the Flyers have traded away every one of their second round picks with Paul Holmgren as GM (they did have second round picks in 2007 and 2012 that they got via trade). While the Flyers trading their pick is still a possibility, I don't think it is likely. Holmgren has started to value the draft more and specifically the second round. Last year was there first time picking in the 2nd round in five years and their two major prospect acquisitions from this season (Mark Alt and Petr Straka) were both second round picks in 2010.
The second round is less predictable. You have less of an idea of who is going to be on the board and you never know who if the team values a player higher than NHL Central Scouting. So I tried to cast a wide net.
THE WHEEL HOUSE
These are players that are expect to be available when the Flyers pick. Ranked by how likely I think the Flyers are to draft them.
Madison Bowey - Defense - Kelowna Rockets - 6'1 200 lbs
I've seen Bowie compared with former Rocket and current Flyer Luke Schenn. He is not quite as physical (few defensemen are) but he is a better skater and has more offensive potential. Another plus for Bowey is where he plays. Kelowna has a reputation as a defenseman factory producing 2nd Rounders like Shea Weber and Duncan Keith (though Keith was drafted out of Michigan State).
Linus Arnesson - Defense - Djurgarden (Sweden) - 6'1 179 lbs
I mentioned in my article yesterday (not to continuously pimp that article) that this draft is loaded with Jonas Brodin type defensemen. While Arnesson may take slightly longer to develop than Brodin he plays a similar style game. Not overly physical, not overwhelmingly offensive, but very very smart. He made Sweden's World Junior team and he spent most of the season playing professionally in Sweden.
J.T. Compher - Center - US National Development Team - 6'0 161 lbs
Compher would probably me much higher if he had not been plagued with injury all season. Instead of improving his draft stock he has fallen in the rankings from 20th to 34th among North American prospects. Compher still has a ton of skill. According to TSN's Craig Button he has "the attributes of skill and will in his game" which sounds like the type of player the Flyers like. Compher will attend Boston College in the fall so he'll be attending an elite program with a history of producing NHLers.
Dillon Heatherington - Defense - Swift Current Broncos - 6'3 196 lbs
Heatherington is a large smart defenseman. Not overly physical not an offensive dynamo, but both aspects of his game have been steadily improving all season. Which is probably why Heatherington jumped for 44th to 31st in the final North American draft ranking. The Flyers have shown that they like big defensemen which could bode well for Dillon.
Nicolas Petan - Center - Portland Winterhawks - 5'8 161 lbs
Petan tied for the WHL lead in points this past season with 120. He finished second in playoff scoring to linemate Ty Rattie. In total he scored 148 points in 92 games this season. Those numbers are pretty gaudy but there are a few reasons Petan might be a riskier pick. First is his spike in point production. Last year Petan only scored 35 points in 83 games (combining regular and post seasons). That massive spike could be caused from his development as a player or because he started skating on a better line. I think it was a combination of both. Another warning sign will be his size. He is quite small and for every Marty St. Louis and Danny Briere there are a hundred skilled small forwards who never make it to the NHL. But the Flyers do have a recent history of selecting players who are currently playing with Flyers draft picks so Petan is probably on their radar.
OFF THE BOARD
These are players who should go a few picks after the 41st Overall pick, but the Flyers could pick if they have them ranked highly.
Oliver Bjorkstrand - Right Wing - Portland Winterhawks - 5'11 163 lbs
I think that the Flyers are actually more likely to take Bjorkstrand than Petan, but it would probably come as a surprise to people. Bjorkstrand plays on a line with Flyers prospect Taylor Leier and has quite the scoring touch. He played pro hockey in his native Denmark and did pretty well (26 points in 36 games) before coming to the WHL. He models himself after Zach Parise.
Viktor Rydberg - Center - Linkoping (Sweden) - 6'0 187 lbs
Rydberg spent most of his season in the Swedish junior league where he scored 35 points in 35 games. He played one game with Linkoping in Sweden's top league and will likely spend most if not all of next season in the Elitserien. He's defensively responsible and has been steadily improving as he's moved up the ranks.
Wilhelm Westlund - Defense - Farjestad (Sweden) - 6'0 178 lbs
Westlund played 26 games with Farjestad in the Elitserien and while he was only able to score one goal in Sweden's top league he was able to score 15 points in 33 games in the Swedish junior league. Westlund was a late addition to the Swedish U18 team where he was quite impressive at the U18 Championships.
Adam Tambellini - Center/Left Wing - Surrey Eagles (BCHL) - 6'2 174 lbs
The son of LA Kings GM Steve Tambellini has had an impressive showing in his two seasons in the BCHL. He's scored 121 points in 107 games over two seasons. The older Tambellini is close with Paul Holmgren, and the Flyers have signed players out of the BCHL so they have probably given Adam a look. He will be playing for North Dakota in the fall.
Jonathan-Ismael Diaby - Defense - Victoriaville Tigres - 6'5 223 lbs
Big physical defenseman who is a pretty skilled fighter. He has good speed but I've seen multiple places refer to him as a project or even a gamble.
HAVE TO FALL
Players that will likely be off the board before the Flyers 2nd Round pick comes around, but could right into the Flyers lap. Ranked by how likely they are to fall.
Adam Erne - Left Wing - Quebec Ramparts - 6'0 210 lbs
Though Erne is slightly undersized for a power forward, he still has the strength speed and net know how to be effective. The Flyers love for strong forwards who can crash the net could mean that they snap up Erne if he falls to where the Flyers are picking.
Joshua Morrisey - Defense - Prince Albert Raiders - 6'0 186 lbs
Morrisey isthe lead singer of The Smiths one of the fastest defensemen in this years draft. His point production wasn't incredible for such a fast player, but if you have speed you will likely have a spot on an NHL roster. If Morrisey falls he'll be too good of a prospect for the Flyers to pass up.
Morgan Klimchuk - Left Wing - Regina Pats - 5'11 180 lbs
Klimchuk has steadily improved an will likely be one of the bigger name players taken in the second round. His ability to improve all aspects of his game and his willingness to do the dirty work to improve his game could make one of the top prospects of the second round. If he fell to 41st Overall I don't think the Flyers would pass him up.
Ian McCoshen - Defense - Waterloo Blackhawks (USHL) - 6'3 207 lbs
McCoshen is a big strong defenseman who can also produce points (44 points in 53 games in the USHL). Probably the best of this group and could go late in the first. It would take a little bit of luck if he fell to the Flyers.
Zachary Fucale - Goalie - Halifax Mooseheads - 6'1 176 lbs
The top goalie in this years draft; Fucale has lead his Mooseheads team to a QMJHL Championship and could easily win the Memorial Cup. Slightly smaller than most goalies in the league now, but a lot of people have called Fucale "dominant". Some people have Fucale going in the top 10 picks, but drafting goalies is weird and he could fall all the way down to 41st Overall.
DARK HORSES
These are players will likely be available but may not likely be picked by the Flyers. These three players have one thing in common. They all play or are going to play in the KHL.
Marko Dano - Center - Slovan Bratislava - 5'11 178 lbs
Dano spent most of this season with Slovan in the KHL. He put up pretty good points for a 17 year old playing in the second best league in the world and he scored a goal and an assist in 5 games at the World Championships. Dano's production and the fact that he is Slovakian and not Russian makes it more likely that he will be first KHLer off the board in the second round. In an interview he did with Anthony SanFilippo Flyers Alum and European scout Ilkka Sinisalo said he was traveling to Slovakia for scouting, and according to the date of the interview he was likely going to see Dano and Slovan play a home game on December 8th of this year. Slovakia isn't a heavily scouted area and if the Flyers were sending one of their scouts there it was likely to see Dano. If he had a good showing (he led his team in shots in a 2-1 loss) than maybe the Flyers take him.
Andrei Mironov - Defenseman - Dynamo Moscow - 6'2 176 lbs
Mironov was arguably Russia best defenseman for there Bronze Medal winning world junior team. He spent pretty much the whole season with Dynamo Moscow which is an impressive feat. Dynamo won back to back KHL championships in 2012 and 2013. That means that Mironov made the best team in the KHL and stuck with them as they won another Gagarin Cup. Mironov who likely has at least another 1 or 2 years left on his KHL contract could be the most NHL ready defenseman in this draft outside of Seth Jones or Rasmus Ristolainen.
Bogdan Yakimov - Center - Nizhnekamsk - 6'4 201 lbs
If the KHL season was as long as a full length NHL season we may be looking at Yakimov the same way we are looking at Valeri Nichushkin. Yakimov excelled in the Russian junior league and was then bumped up to the VHL, the Russian minor league scoring 13 points in 16 games after being traded to the Nizhnekamsk organization. The big center would likely have been bumped up to the KHL if their season was just a little bit longer. I feel like the Russian factor will affect Yakimov's draft position quite a bit and he could be available when the Flyers pick in the 3rd round. But if Yakimov makes it known that he wants to come over to North America then the Flyers would be hard pressed to pass up the big center.
Pavel Buchnevich - Left Wing - Cherepovets - 6'1 161 lbs
The small yet skilled winger is the highest ranked of these four dark horses. He like Dano and Mironov spent some time in the KHL; Buchnevich scored a goal and an assist in 12 games with Cherepovets. He's got skill and could be a top six player in the NHL, but I think if the Flyers have to choose between Buchnevich and guys like Dano (who will likely come over), Mironov (an NHL ready defenseman), and Yakimov (the big power forward) he would be ranked the lowest on their list. But if Buchnevich is available later in the draft they may snatch him up.
And those are the players I think the Flyers might take in the second round. There are a lot of names, but there are a lot of factors that could change who is on the board when the Flyers are drafting.
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I mentioned in my article yesterday that the Flyers have traded away every one of their second round picks with Paul Holmgren as GM (they did have second round picks in 2007 and 2012 that they got via trade). While the Flyers trading their pick is still a possibility, I don't think it is likely. Holmgren has started to value the draft more and specifically the second round. Last year was there first time picking in the 2nd round in five years and their two major prospect acquisitions from this season (Mark Alt and Petr Straka) were both second round picks in 2010.
The second round is less predictable. You have less of an idea of who is going to be on the board and you never know who if the team values a player higher than NHL Central Scouting. So I tried to cast a wide net.
THE WHEEL HOUSE
These are players that are expect to be available when the Flyers pick. Ranked by how likely I think the Flyers are to draft them.
Madison Bowey - Defense - Kelowna Rockets - 6'1 200 lbs
I've seen Bowie compared with former Rocket and current Flyer Luke Schenn. He is not quite as physical (few defensemen are) but he is a better skater and has more offensive potential. Another plus for Bowey is where he plays. Kelowna has a reputation as a defenseman factory producing 2nd Rounders like Shea Weber and Duncan Keith (though Keith was drafted out of Michigan State).
Linus Arnesson - Defense - Djurgarden (Sweden) - 6'1 179 lbs
I mentioned in my article yesterday (not to continuously pimp that article) that this draft is loaded with Jonas Brodin type defensemen. While Arnesson may take slightly longer to develop than Brodin he plays a similar style game. Not overly physical, not overwhelmingly offensive, but very very smart. He made Sweden's World Junior team and he spent most of the season playing professionally in Sweden.
J.T. Compher - Center - US National Development Team - 6'0 161 lbs
Compher would probably me much higher if he had not been plagued with injury all season. Instead of improving his draft stock he has fallen in the rankings from 20th to 34th among North American prospects. Compher still has a ton of skill. According to TSN's Craig Button he has "the attributes of skill and will in his game" which sounds like the type of player the Flyers like. Compher will attend Boston College in the fall so he'll be attending an elite program with a history of producing NHLers.
Dillon Heatherington - Defense - Swift Current Broncos - 6'3 196 lbs
Heatherington is a large smart defenseman. Not overly physical not an offensive dynamo, but both aspects of his game have been steadily improving all season. Which is probably why Heatherington jumped for 44th to 31st in the final North American draft ranking. The Flyers have shown that they like big defensemen which could bode well for Dillon.
Nicolas Petan - Center - Portland Winterhawks - 5'8 161 lbs
Petan tied for the WHL lead in points this past season with 120. He finished second in playoff scoring to linemate Ty Rattie. In total he scored 148 points in 92 games this season. Those numbers are pretty gaudy but there are a few reasons Petan might be a riskier pick. First is his spike in point production. Last year Petan only scored 35 points in 83 games (combining regular and post seasons). That massive spike could be caused from his development as a player or because he started skating on a better line. I think it was a combination of both. Another warning sign will be his size. He is quite small and for every Marty St. Louis and Danny Briere there are a hundred skilled small forwards who never make it to the NHL. But the Flyers do have a recent history of selecting players who are currently playing with Flyers draft picks so Petan is probably on their radar.
OFF THE BOARD
These are players who should go a few picks after the 41st Overall pick, but the Flyers could pick if they have them ranked highly.
Oliver Bjorkstrand - Right Wing - Portland Winterhawks - 5'11 163 lbs
I think that the Flyers are actually more likely to take Bjorkstrand than Petan, but it would probably come as a surprise to people. Bjorkstrand plays on a line with Flyers prospect Taylor Leier and has quite the scoring touch. He played pro hockey in his native Denmark and did pretty well (26 points in 36 games) before coming to the WHL. He models himself after Zach Parise.
Viktor Rydberg - Center - Linkoping (Sweden) - 6'0 187 lbs
Rydberg spent most of his season in the Swedish junior league where he scored 35 points in 35 games. He played one game with Linkoping in Sweden's top league and will likely spend most if not all of next season in the Elitserien. He's defensively responsible and has been steadily improving as he's moved up the ranks.
Wilhelm Westlund - Defense - Farjestad (Sweden) - 6'0 178 lbs
Westlund played 26 games with Farjestad in the Elitserien and while he was only able to score one goal in Sweden's top league he was able to score 15 points in 33 games in the Swedish junior league. Westlund was a late addition to the Swedish U18 team where he was quite impressive at the U18 Championships.
Adam Tambellini - Center/Left Wing - Surrey Eagles (BCHL) - 6'2 174 lbs
The son of LA Kings GM Steve Tambellini has had an impressive showing in his two seasons in the BCHL. He's scored 121 points in 107 games over two seasons. The older Tambellini is close with Paul Holmgren, and the Flyers have signed players out of the BCHL so they have probably given Adam a look. He will be playing for North Dakota in the fall.
Jonathan-Ismael Diaby - Defense - Victoriaville Tigres - 6'5 223 lbs
Big physical defenseman who is a pretty skilled fighter. He has good speed but I've seen multiple places refer to him as a project or even a gamble.
HAVE TO FALL
Players that will likely be off the board before the Flyers 2nd Round pick comes around, but could right into the Flyers lap. Ranked by how likely they are to fall.
Adam Erne - Left Wing - Quebec Ramparts - 6'0 210 lbs
Though Erne is slightly undersized for a power forward, he still has the strength speed and net know how to be effective. The Flyers love for strong forwards who can crash the net could mean that they snap up Erne if he falls to where the Flyers are picking.
Joshua Morrisey - Defense - Prince Albert Raiders - 6'0 186 lbs
Morrisey is
Morgan Klimchuk - Left Wing - Regina Pats - 5'11 180 lbs
Klimchuk has steadily improved an will likely be one of the bigger name players taken in the second round. His ability to improve all aspects of his game and his willingness to do the dirty work to improve his game could make one of the top prospects of the second round. If he fell to 41st Overall I don't think the Flyers would pass him up.
Ian McCoshen - Defense - Waterloo Blackhawks (USHL) - 6'3 207 lbs
McCoshen is a big strong defenseman who can also produce points (44 points in 53 games in the USHL). Probably the best of this group and could go late in the first. It would take a little bit of luck if he fell to the Flyers.
Zachary Fucale - Goalie - Halifax Mooseheads - 6'1 176 lbs
The top goalie in this years draft; Fucale has lead his Mooseheads team to a QMJHL Championship and could easily win the Memorial Cup. Slightly smaller than most goalies in the league now, but a lot of people have called Fucale "dominant". Some people have Fucale going in the top 10 picks, but drafting goalies is weird and he could fall all the way down to 41st Overall.
DARK HORSES
These are players will likely be available but may not likely be picked by the Flyers. These three players have one thing in common. They all play or are going to play in the KHL.
Marko Dano - Center - Slovan Bratislava - 5'11 178 lbs
Dano spent most of this season with Slovan in the KHL. He put up pretty good points for a 17 year old playing in the second best league in the world and he scored a goal and an assist in 5 games at the World Championships. Dano's production and the fact that he is Slovakian and not Russian makes it more likely that he will be first KHLer off the board in the second round. In an interview he did with Anthony SanFilippo Flyers Alum and European scout Ilkka Sinisalo said he was traveling to Slovakia for scouting, and according to the date of the interview he was likely going to see Dano and Slovan play a home game on December 8th of this year. Slovakia isn't a heavily scouted area and if the Flyers were sending one of their scouts there it was likely to see Dano. If he had a good showing (he led his team in shots in a 2-1 loss) than maybe the Flyers take him.
Andrei Mironov - Defenseman - Dynamo Moscow - 6'2 176 lbs
Mironov was arguably Russia best defenseman for there Bronze Medal winning world junior team. He spent pretty much the whole season with Dynamo Moscow which is an impressive feat. Dynamo won back to back KHL championships in 2012 and 2013. That means that Mironov made the best team in the KHL and stuck with them as they won another Gagarin Cup. Mironov who likely has at least another 1 or 2 years left on his KHL contract could be the most NHL ready defenseman in this draft outside of Seth Jones or Rasmus Ristolainen.
Bogdan Yakimov - Center - Nizhnekamsk - 6'4 201 lbs
If the KHL season was as long as a full length NHL season we may be looking at Yakimov the same way we are looking at Valeri Nichushkin. Yakimov excelled in the Russian junior league and was then bumped up to the VHL, the Russian minor league scoring 13 points in 16 games after being traded to the Nizhnekamsk organization. The big center would likely have been bumped up to the KHL if their season was just a little bit longer. I feel like the Russian factor will affect Yakimov's draft position quite a bit and he could be available when the Flyers pick in the 3rd round. But if Yakimov makes it known that he wants to come over to North America then the Flyers would be hard pressed to pass up the big center.
Pavel Buchnevich - Left Wing - Cherepovets - 6'1 161 lbs
The small yet skilled winger is the highest ranked of these four dark horses. He like Dano and Mironov spent some time in the KHL; Buchnevich scored a goal and an assist in 12 games with Cherepovets. He's got skill and could be a top six player in the NHL, but I think if the Flyers have to choose between Buchnevich and guys like Dano (who will likely come over), Mironov (an NHL ready defenseman), and Yakimov (the big power forward) he would be ranked the lowest on their list. But if Buchnevich is available later in the draft they may snatch him up.
And those are the players I think the Flyers might take in the second round. There are a lot of names, but there are a lot of factors that could change who is on the board when the Flyers are drafting.
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Wednesday, May 15, 2013
Flyers Recent Draft Trends
It's been kind of a long lay off since my last post, but I've been doing some work trying to figure out who the Flyers might take in the upcoming draft.
The upcoming draft will be Paul Holmgren's 7th as the Flyers GM. In his time as GM we have seen the Flyers make a major sea change in how they view the draft. For the first four seasons as Flyers GM Holmgren viewed the Flyers draft picks, and especially their high draft picks, as valuable trade assets. The Flyers traded their 1st Round picks from 2009, 2010, and 2011. Under Holmgren the Flyers have traded every one of their 2nd Round picks (their 2007 and 2012 2nd round picks they got via trade). This also led the Flyers to undervaluing their amateur scouting. That is why very few the Flyers recent draft picks have developed into NHLers or promising prospects.
But in the last few years the Flyers have started to value the draft more. We are trading fewer picks and digging more into amateur scouting. I took a look at Flyers recent drafts and noticed some trends. Hopefully this will help us better predict who the Flyers will take in the upcoming draft.
SHIFTING FOCUS FROM THE WHL/QMJHL TO THE OHL
From 2007 to 2010 the Flyers drafted 14 players out of the Canadian Junior leagues. 7 from the Quebec Major Junior League, 5 from the Western Hockey League, and only 2 from the Ontario Hockey League. Those players from the QMJHL and WHL,with the exception of Luca Sbisa, have combined to only play 73 games in the NHL. The two players from the OHL, Zac Rinaldo and Eric Wellwood, have combined for 129 games in the NHL. That may have been the catalyst for the Flyers change in ideology. In the last two drafts the Flyers have taken 4 players out of the OHL, 2 out of the WHL, and only 1 from the QMJ (that player being Sean Couturier who fell much further than anyone expected). The Flyers may go back to the OHL in this draft but I think there is another equally as important factor that may decide who the Flyers take (and who they take early).
DRAFTING PLAYERS WHO ARE PLAYING WITH FLYERS DRAFT PICKS
Scott Laughton plays on a team with 2011 4th Round pick Colin Suellentrop. 2012 4th Round pick Taylor Leier was playing with 2011 4th Round Pick Marcel Noebels. The Flyers showed last year that they like taking players who were currently playing with Flyers draft picks. One big reason for this is that Flyers prospects are looked at by everybody in the organization (management, scouts, even coaches). So if a draft eligible player is skating with a Flyers prospect they will be seen more than other prospects and seen more by people with power.
Also, if you look at Shayne Gostisbehere he was playing with Jeremy Welsh who was one of the top college free agents and was definitely scouted by the Flyers. Playing with Braydon Coburn's brother Greg probably also drew some extra eyes to the under the radar defenseman.
This trend bodes well for guys like D Nikita Zadorov (who plays for London with G prospect Anthony Stolarz) and F Valentin Zykov (who played with free agent signing Petr Straka in Baie-Comeau) who are both expected to go between 11-15. It could mean that London Knights Bo Horvat and Max Domi could go off the board before anyone expects. But this trend goes further than just the first round, I wouldn't be surprised if we see the Flyers draft multiple players who are currently playing with Flyers property.
TAKING SWEDES IN THE MID TO LATE ROUNDS
Under Holmgren the Flyers have only drafted 5 players out of Europe. Of those five players four of them were Swedes, and of those Swedes 3 of them were defensemen. There are a multitude of Swedish defensemen that are expected to come off the board between the 2nd and 4th rounds. Most of these defensemen are Jonas Brodin type (average size, pretty good point production, tons of smarts). While all three of the defensemen Holmgren has drafted out of Sweden have been big physical defensive defensemen I think the Flyers will go for a different type of Swedish defense I think they'll go a different way this season with the amount of talent coming off of Swedish blue lines in this draft.
LOWER ROUND GAMBLES
Everyone knows that players drafted in the later rounds are a long way from the NHL. They need more time to develop and a good percentage of them will never make it to the NHL. Recently in the later rounds the Flyers have been taking raw players. Players who have a lot of potential but might not be able to make the most out of their skill. If these players develop then the Flyers stole a player in the later rounds. If they don't turn out, well then they didn't waste anything that valuable.
One way to give these players time to develop is by drafting players who are heading to college. This allows them more time to develop before the Flyers have to sign them. Since 2010, 4 of the 8 players the Flyers have drafted in the 5th Round or later have gone to college the year after being drafted.
The Flyers last two drafts have been the best under Paul Holmgren. I expect them to keep with at least some of these trends in the upcoming draft.
Follow the blog on twitter@Future_Flyers
The upcoming draft will be Paul Holmgren's 7th as the Flyers GM. In his time as GM we have seen the Flyers make a major sea change in how they view the draft. For the first four seasons as Flyers GM Holmgren viewed the Flyers draft picks, and especially their high draft picks, as valuable trade assets. The Flyers traded their 1st Round picks from 2009, 2010, and 2011. Under Holmgren the Flyers have traded every one of their 2nd Round picks (their 2007 and 2012 2nd round picks they got via trade). This also led the Flyers to undervaluing their amateur scouting. That is why very few the Flyers recent draft picks have developed into NHLers or promising prospects.
But in the last few years the Flyers have started to value the draft more. We are trading fewer picks and digging more into amateur scouting. I took a look at Flyers recent drafts and noticed some trends. Hopefully this will help us better predict who the Flyers will take in the upcoming draft.
SHIFTING FOCUS FROM THE WHL/QMJHL TO THE OHL
From 2007 to 2010 the Flyers drafted 14 players out of the Canadian Junior leagues. 7 from the Quebec Major Junior League, 5 from the Western Hockey League, and only 2 from the Ontario Hockey League. Those players from the QMJHL and WHL,with the exception of Luca Sbisa, have combined to only play 73 games in the NHL. The two players from the OHL, Zac Rinaldo and Eric Wellwood, have combined for 129 games in the NHL. That may have been the catalyst for the Flyers change in ideology. In the last two drafts the Flyers have taken 4 players out of the OHL, 2 out of the WHL, and only 1 from the QMJ (that player being Sean Couturier who fell much further than anyone expected). The Flyers may go back to the OHL in this draft but I think there is another equally as important factor that may decide who the Flyers take (and who they take early).
DRAFTING PLAYERS WHO ARE PLAYING WITH FLYERS DRAFT PICKS
Scott Laughton plays on a team with 2011 4th Round pick Colin Suellentrop. 2012 4th Round pick Taylor Leier was playing with 2011 4th Round Pick Marcel Noebels. The Flyers showed last year that they like taking players who were currently playing with Flyers draft picks. One big reason for this is that Flyers prospects are looked at by everybody in the organization (management, scouts, even coaches). So if a draft eligible player is skating with a Flyers prospect they will be seen more than other prospects and seen more by people with power.
Also, if you look at Shayne Gostisbehere he was playing with Jeremy Welsh who was one of the top college free agents and was definitely scouted by the Flyers. Playing with Braydon Coburn's brother Greg probably also drew some extra eyes to the under the radar defenseman.
This trend bodes well for guys like D Nikita Zadorov (who plays for London with G prospect Anthony Stolarz) and F Valentin Zykov (who played with free agent signing Petr Straka in Baie-Comeau) who are both expected to go between 11-15. It could mean that London Knights Bo Horvat and Max Domi could go off the board before anyone expects. But this trend goes further than just the first round, I wouldn't be surprised if we see the Flyers draft multiple players who are currently playing with Flyers property.
TAKING SWEDES IN THE MID TO LATE ROUNDS
Under Holmgren the Flyers have only drafted 5 players out of Europe. Of those five players four of them were Swedes, and of those Swedes 3 of them were defensemen. There are a multitude of Swedish defensemen that are expected to come off the board between the 2nd and 4th rounds. Most of these defensemen are Jonas Brodin type (average size, pretty good point production, tons of smarts). While all three of the defensemen Holmgren has drafted out of Sweden have been big physical defensive defensemen I think the Flyers will go for a different type of Swedish defense I think they'll go a different way this season with the amount of talent coming off of Swedish blue lines in this draft.
LOWER ROUND GAMBLES
Everyone knows that players drafted in the later rounds are a long way from the NHL. They need more time to develop and a good percentage of them will never make it to the NHL. Recently in the later rounds the Flyers have been taking raw players. Players who have a lot of potential but might not be able to make the most out of their skill. If these players develop then the Flyers stole a player in the later rounds. If they don't turn out, well then they didn't waste anything that valuable.
One way to give these players time to develop is by drafting players who are heading to college. This allows them more time to develop before the Flyers have to sign them. Since 2010, 4 of the 8 players the Flyers have drafted in the 5th Round or later have gone to college the year after being drafted.
The Flyers last two drafts have been the best under Paul Holmgren. I expect them to keep with at least some of these trends in the upcoming draft.
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