The upcoming draft will be Paul Holmgren's 7th as the Flyers GM. In his time as GM we have seen the Flyers make a major sea change in how they view the draft. For the first four seasons as Flyers GM Holmgren viewed the Flyers draft picks, and especially their high draft picks, as valuable trade assets. The Flyers traded their 1st Round picks from 2009, 2010, and 2011. Under Holmgren the Flyers have traded every one of their 2nd Round picks (their 2007 and 2012 2nd round picks they got via trade). This also led the Flyers to undervaluing their amateur scouting. That is why very few the Flyers recent draft picks have developed into NHLers or promising prospects.
But in the last few years the Flyers have started to value the draft more. We are trading fewer picks and digging more into amateur scouting. I took a look at Flyers recent drafts and noticed some trends. Hopefully this will help us better predict who the Flyers will take in the upcoming draft.
SHIFTING FOCUS FROM THE WHL/QMJHL TO THE OHL
From 2007 to 2010 the Flyers drafted 14 players out of the Canadian Junior leagues. 7 from the Quebec Major Junior League, 5 from the Western Hockey League, and only 2 from the Ontario Hockey League. Those players from the QMJHL and WHL,with the exception of Luca Sbisa, have combined to only play 73 games in the NHL. The two players from the OHL, Zac Rinaldo and Eric Wellwood, have combined for 129 games in the NHL. That may have been the catalyst for the Flyers change in ideology. In the last two drafts the Flyers have taken 4 players out of the OHL, 2 out of the WHL, and only 1 from the QMJ (that player being Sean Couturier who fell much further than anyone expected). The Flyers may go back to the OHL in this draft but I think there is another equally as important factor that may decide who the Flyers take (and who they take early).
DRAFTING PLAYERS WHO ARE PLAYING WITH FLYERS DRAFT PICKS
Scott Laughton plays on a team with 2011 4th Round pick Colin Suellentrop. 2012 4th Round pick Taylor Leier was playing with 2011 4th Round Pick Marcel Noebels. The Flyers showed last year that they like taking players who were currently playing with Flyers draft picks. One big reason for this is that Flyers prospects are looked at by everybody in the organization (management, scouts, even coaches). So if a draft eligible player is skating with a Flyers prospect they will be seen more than other prospects and seen more by people with power.
Also, if you look at Shayne Gostisbehere he was playing with Jeremy Welsh who was one of the top college free agents and was definitely scouted by the Flyers. Playing with Braydon Coburn's brother Greg probably also drew some extra eyes to the under the radar defenseman.
This trend bodes well for guys like D Nikita Zadorov (who plays for London with G prospect Anthony Stolarz) and F Valentin Zykov (who played with free agent signing Petr Straka in Baie-Comeau) who are both expected to go between 11-15. It could mean that London Knights Bo Horvat and Max Domi could go off the board before anyone expects. But this trend goes further than just the first round, I wouldn't be surprised if we see the Flyers draft multiple players who are currently playing with Flyers property.
TAKING SWEDES IN THE MID TO LATE ROUNDS
Under Holmgren the Flyers have only drafted 5 players out of Europe. Of those five players four of them were Swedes, and of those Swedes 3 of them were defensemen. There are a multitude of Swedish defensemen that are expected to come off the board between the 2nd and 4th rounds. Most of these defensemen are Jonas Brodin type (average size, pretty good point production, tons of smarts). While all three of the defensemen Holmgren has drafted out of Sweden have been big physical defensive defensemen I think the Flyers will go for a different type of Swedish defense I think they'll go a different way this season with the amount of talent coming off of Swedish blue lines in this draft.
LOWER ROUND GAMBLES
Everyone knows that players drafted in the later rounds are a long way from the NHL. They need more time to develop and a good percentage of them will never make it to the NHL. Recently in the later rounds the Flyers have been taking raw players. Players who have a lot of potential but might not be able to make the most out of their skill. If these players develop then the Flyers stole a player in the later rounds. If they don't turn out, well then they didn't waste anything that valuable.
One way to give these players time to develop is by drafting players who are heading to college. This allows them more time to develop before the Flyers have to sign them. Since 2010, 4 of the 8 players the Flyers have drafted in the 5th Round or later have gone to college the year after being drafted.
The Flyers last two drafts have been the best under Paul Holmgren. I expect them to keep with at least some of these trends in the upcoming draft.
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